Tennis is one of the most paradoxical sports in the entire sports betting community. Even though it’s not as popular as football, many punters choose to include tennis odds onto their betting slips. Why is this the case? Well, searching for the best tennis odds allows bettors to ‘supplement’ their accas on a slow footy day or to bolster their maximum winnings with a potential upset.
Although tennis odds function like most normal markets in other sports, there are quite a few peculiar details involved. It’s precisely these details that entice punters into creating multi-sport betting slips. However, those same details are known to create a lot of confusion and result in a lot of mistakes. That’s what we at BettingMetrics wanted to achieve with this crash course in tennis odds. You’ll learn how to make winning decisions and improve your bankroll management in no time.
Tennis odds are both created and posted by professional oddsmakers, usually in collaboration with betting sites. These experts follow the global tennis scene on a daily basis and try to establish the realm of ‘implied probability’ for a multitude of outcomes. Implied probability is a term frequently used whilst calculating tennis odds. It uses statistical data and previous outcomes to try and predict how a point, game, set, or match will end.
Remember, tennis odds aren’t a means of saying something will surely happen. Instead, they serve to remind punters that previous results from a player or a duo indicate that they will likely win/lose. The closer the tennis odds are to 1 (in the decimal odds system), the more likely the outcome is.
If the odds on Federer winning against a 17-year-old newcomer are 1.01, that means the outcome is 99% certain. However, tennis odds are rarely this close to bulletproof. Because there are so many variables during every point, let alone match, examples like the aforementioned one are a rarity. Therefore, it’s important to consider the importance of tennis odds, even for those that are not fans of the sport. They bring in money and fill up the gaps masterfully.
While tennis odds always hover around the 1.70-2.70 mark, they are considered borderline-volatile, mainly because upsets happen on a frequent basis. Still, it’s possible to pinpoint how exactly are tennis odds calculated. Our team weighed the available options, with our final list coming down to the following four factors.
Surface. In almost all circles of competition, tennis is played on either hard courts, red clay, or grass. The choice of the surface impacts tennis odds more than you might initially believe. For example, red clay is the best choice for players who don’t have a particularly serve and forehand but are, nevertheless, technically sound. Rafael Nadal is known for his speed and performances on this slow surface. Tennis odds predict upsets much more frequently, as players of different playstyles have to adjust to the reduced speed. Grass makes the balls bounce lower than usual, which makes players with quick reflexes like Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer legends on this surface. Tennis odds usually account for different surfaces, but there is no way to tell how a match is going to play out.
Form. When it comes to tennis odds, the form is important in not one, but two ways. If a player has been losing a lot in the last few months, then it’s much more probable for him to lose again. On the other hand, a player winning multiple tournaments in a row can be the underdog because of all the matches he’s played in. Tennis odds are known to account for burnout, but it’s not possible to predict legendary runs. That’s why they’re legendary, right?
Draw difficulty. This factor mostly impacts tennis odds when futures are involved. For instance, a player’s chances of winning a tourney are much lower if /she faces a top-5 player early on. The same goes even for the best players if they have to play several top-20/30 players from the round of 64 onwards. Tennis odds are also affected by draw difficulty when you’re betting on the quarter-finals, semi-finals or finals of a tournament. The worse player might win the match if he or she had an easy draw, which allowed him to conserve energy.
Playstyles of both players. Even though the following three variables impact tennis odds to a significant extent, they can all be dwarfed by the juxtaposition between the playstyles of two players. If one has a strong serve and the other has a weak return, it’s completely possible for the latter one to lose, even if he or she is ranked higher on the ATP/WTA list. Many bettors take this into consideration and hunt the best tennis odds to an even greater extent - by betting on Challenger series tournaments. It’s impossible to know how a player plays, so they try to break the bank on some juicy odds.
Have you ever wondered why tennis odds vary from bookie to bookie? When you’re looking for today’s tennis odds, the differences between examples of the same market all come down to different oddsmakers using different methods and software. Therefore, you should do the same analysis used for calculating tennis betting odds and cross-reference the data with what every bookmaker has posted.
That way, you’ll be able to correctly assess the feasibility of approx. 90% of all tennis odds. It’s an indispensable skill and a significant financial cushion for the long run, regardless of your experience level or affinities.
If you’ve ever taken an interest in tennis odds, then you might have heard people using the term ‘movement’ when talking about the whole niche. Like in every sport, tennis odds can move if something that occurs is believed to have reduced/increased the probability of an outcome. This can involve a lot of things, and a single tennis match has a million variables that can influence tennis odds at any moment.
Out of all the sports we covered, tennis is by far the most volatile. Even if you use the best tennis odds comparison tools, you still wouldn’t be able to predict what’s going to happen. That’s why we had a particularly hard time determining what influences tennis odds movements on a regular basis. After several days of research, we were able to come up with a list pertaining to the biggest variables:
Forfeits. Remember how we said that draw difficulty influences tennis odds? Well, it’s worth noting that tennis is a sport where players are able to forfeit a match. If you’re betting on a bigger tournament, it’s possible to encounter situations where top-5 players forfeiting their matches can lead to a total swaying of all tennis odds. Let’s say that Novak Djokovic just couldn’t go on with his match against a low-seeded player. All of a sudden, tennis odds could change across the board, especially if a player gets a chance at a clear run to the title.
Weather conditions. Believe it or not, the weather can make or break tennis odds. You don’t usually hear about it, but that’s because all ATP and WTA tournaments are scheduled during the ideal weather period in that region. Tennis odds can be jeopardized when the wind is blowing slightly, or if the rain stops a match. If the match is set to continue in one or two days, both players might get some rest from their gruelling draws and skew the tennis odds some more.
Surges. Since most tennis odds are posted 2-3 weeks before the match takes place, there’s a lot of room for movement. While Cinderella stories don’t happen very, it’s possible for an underdog to shatter all expectations and even win the title. Naomi Osaka, anyone? Tennis odds use a player’s most recent form to indicate different levels of probability. Despite his or her ATP/WTA list ranking or the initially posted tennis odds, a streak of improbable wins can entice a player to win due to the sheer power of momentum.
In order to understand tennis odds to their fullest extent, you need to look beyond mere circumstances and statistics. Our goal at BettingMetrics is to isolate even the smallest visible patterns and analyze them to see if they can help bettors handle their tennis odds better. While football and other sports are comprised of situations that are easy to predict, tennis has some specifics:
Tennis odds can be impacted by the number of a certain player’s fans present at an event. Rafa is beloved at all clay tournaments, so you can expect him to have rock-solid support. Even though tennis odds don’t take this into consideration very often, a minute of cheering after a key ace just might give a player a little bit of extra energy.
You also need to take the intangibles into consideration if you really want to find the ideal set of tennis odds. There are players who are known to throw temper tantrums when things aren’t going their way. If they’re involved in a high stakes match, look at tennis odds for live betting markets. You will be able to predict the exact moment they lose the mind and rob the bookies blind.
Changes in coaching teams can also cause a dent in tennis odds for a variety of players. It’s difficult for anyone to adjust to a completely new system