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Who will win the Ballon d’Or?

Published on February 13, 2024
Updated on April 18, 2024
Written by Chris

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Who will win the Ballon d'Or?
  • Ballon d’Or competition hots up as Messi and Ronaldo era looks to have passed
  • Bellingham favourite ahead of Mbappe and Haaland
  • 2024 Award to be judged on the season not the year for the second time

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2024 Ballon d’Or Odds: A new era beckons

As the anticipation builds for the 2024 Ballon d’Or ceremony, football enthusiasts are eagerly assessing the odds and speculating on who will emerge victorious in the prestigious event. With Lionel Messi securing his eighth Ballon d’Or in 2023, the stage is set for a potential changing of the guard, as new talents rise to prominence and familiar faces continue to captivate the football world.

Who is the favourite to win the Ballon d’Or 2024?

The landscape of Ballon d’Or contenders has evolved, with established legends like Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo giving way to a fresh crop of talent. Messi, who won his record eighth Ballon d’Or in 2023 and five-time winner Ronaldo have both left Europe, and while they are both in the top ten or fifteen names presented by the bookies, realistically there are far stronger candidates. Leading the pack is Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham, whose stellar performances have propelled him to the forefront of Ballon d’Or discussions. Trailing closely behind are Kylian Mbappe of Paris Saint-Germain and Erling Haaland of Manchester City, both formidable contenders in their own right.

Ballon d’Or 2024: Latest odds

The table below shows the latest odds from bet365. Odds are correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.

Jude Bellingham11/4
Kylian Mbappe7/2
Erling Haaland5/1
Harry Kane9/2
Lionel Messi9/1
Kevin De Bruyne16/1
Vincius Jr.25/1
Mohamed Salah25/1
Cristiano Ronaldo33/1
Julian Alvarez40/1
Antoine Griezmann50/1
Bernardo Silva66/1
Declan Rice80/1
Odds correct as of 13.02.24 at 15:00. Odds subject to change

Ballon d’Or 2024: Evaluating the contenders

Jude Bellingham:

Bellingham has had an extraordinary campaign to date.The Real Madrid midfielder has dazzled audiences with his skill and vision, amassing an impressive tally of 20 goals and eight assists in 29 matches in all competitions. 

Madrid are currently favourites for La Liga, and, naturally, a title win would strengthen his case. A Champions League win for Madrid, which is not necessarily expected this season, or at least a run to the last four, would strengthen his case. 

There is also the little matter of the Euros and England are among the favourites. Bellingham’s individual performances there could be a deciding factor. Team success, however, is often a factor when handing out individual awards and should England triumph in the summer then Bellingham could well get his hands on the Ballon d’Or.

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Kylian Mbappe:

Paris Saint-Germain anf France forward Mbappe continues to showcase his brilliance on the pitch. The Frenchman is right behind Bellingham in terms of Ballon d’Or 2024 odds. The 24-year-old has 30 goals and seven assists in 29 games in all competitions, and he is aiming to bring PSG their first-ever Champions League trophy.

If Mbappe can lead the team in Europe and continue his outstanding goal contribution ratio, he will  remain a favourite to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or throughout.. His, and to an extent, France’s performance in the Euros will also be factored in. Mbappe’s relentless pursuit of excellence positions him as a formidable contender for the coveted Ballon d’Or trophy.

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Erling Haaland:

Manchester City striker Haaland has had his season disrupted by injury. However, afrer missing the festive period he is now back fit and firing. The Norwegian has 16 goals and five assists in 18 matches in the English Premier League and in all competitions has 21 goals and six assists. Even though he may not have hit top form so far this season, he is still the favourite to win the Golden Boot in England.

If Halaand has a strong finish to the season he could score 35 – 40 goals in all competitions. so we love his chances of winning the 2024 Ballon d’Or. Manchester City are favourites to win the Premier League, the Champions League and the FA Cup. They are currently 10/1 to repeat last season’s treble. Trophies would further strengthen the Norwegian’s case. Unlike his rivals, however, he will not be at the Euros in the Summer.

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The Ballon d’Or decision process:

The Ballon d’Or winner is determined by a select panel of 100 journalists representing FIFA’s top member nations. Each journalist submits their top five choices from a 30-man shortlist, with points allocated accordingly. The player with the highest aggregate score is crowned the Ballon d’Or winner for that year.

Historically, six out of the last ten Ballon d’Or winners have emerged from UEFA Champions League-winning teams.

The presence of a player from the Champions League-winning side in the top ten is almost guaranteed.

Notably, the Ballon d’Or has never been awarded to a player based outside of Europe.

Teams with most Ballon d’Or winners

  • Barcelona – 12
  • Real Madrid – 12
  • Juventus – 8
  • AC Milan – 8
  • Bayern Munich – 5

Last 10 winners of Ballon d’Or

2023Lionel MessiInter MiamiForward
2022Karim BenzemaReal MadridForward
2021Lionel MessiParis Saint GermainForward
2020No WinnerNo WinnerNo Winner
2019Lionel MessiBarcelonaForward
2018Luka ModricReal MadridMidfielder
2017Cristiano RonaldoReal MadridForward
2016Cristiano RonaldoReal MadridForward
2015Lionel MessiBarcelonaStriker
2014Cristiano RonaldoReal MadridStriker

Ballon d’Or: British winners

Bellingham and Harry Kane are among the favourites this time round. However, there have only been six British winners of the Ballon d’Or.

Sir Stanley Matthews (England) 1956

Matthews was the first ever winner of the Ballon d’Or in 1956. Nicknamed “The Magician” and “The Wizard of the Dribble” he was one of England’s greatest players. Matthews spent 14 years at Blackpool and showed incredible longevity, continuing in professional football until he was 50.

Denis Law (Scotland) 1964

The Lawman, winner of the Ballon d’Or in 1964, is the only Scottish player in history to have won the award. Law was a striker from the 1950s to the 1970s who was best known for the 11 years he spent at Manchester United. 

Sir Bobby Charlton (England) 1966

Ashington born Charlton won the Ballon d’Or in 1966, the year he won the World Cup with England, and is still regarded as one of the greatest midfielders of all time.

George Best (Northern Ireland) 1968

Best is the only Northern Irishman to win the award, won the Ballon d’Or in 1968. 

He is best known for his time at Manchester United, where he made his debut in 1963 aged 17. He went on to score 179 goals in 470 appearances over the next 11 years.

Kevin Keegan (England) 1978 and 1979

Kevin Keegan is the only British player to win the Ballon d’Or twice – picking up the award in 1978 and 1979. He played as a forward for Doncaster Rovers, Liverpool, SV Hamburg, Southampton and Newcastle United. 

He won the award when playing for Hamburg in the Bundesliga and became one of the first British players to successfully export his talents to another European league.

Keegan went on to manage Newcastle, Fulham, Man City, and the England national team.

Michael Owen (England) 2001

Owen was the last British player to win the Ballon d’Or back in 2001. He played as a striker for Liverpool, Real Madrid, Newcastle United, Manchester United and Stoke City as well as the England national team.

In 2001 he helped Liverpool to three trophies, including the UEFA Cup and starred as England beat Germany 5-1 in a World Cup qualifier.

Ballon d’Or 2024 predictions

While Bellingham, Mbappe and Haaland are the three front runners, we also have to assess some of the other options and decide whether anyone could make a late run.

Ballon’Or 2024: Outside bets

Currently recovering from a hamstring injury, which led to his early return from the AFCON, Liverpool’s Mo Salah has 18 goals and 9 assists from 27 matches in all competitions. After is enforced lay off Salah will be fresh going into the run in where Liverpool are still fighting on four fronts. They lead the Premier League by two points, though second placed Manchester City have a game in hand, they have reached the final of the EFL Cup where they will face Chelsea and they are the current favourites to win the Europa League. The three favourites all have the advantage of playing in the Champions League, however, if Salah bags a load of goals and comes out of the season with two or more trophies he could, depending on the fortunes of the three current favourites, land a surprise win.

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Another name worth a mention is Rodri. It would be unusual for a holding midfielder to win this award, however, the Spaniard has been crucial to City’s success over the last couple of seasons and a strong end to the campaign, another treble and a strong Euros with Spain may see a huge turn up for the books. It would however, take the three favourites, including his City teammate Haaland to falter.

Another Manchester City star to have an outside chance is Kevin de Bruyne. An outstanding midfielder, the Belgian has never really had a chance to win this award due to the consistent brilliance of Messi and Ronaldo. He missed virtually the entire first half of the season with City through injury, however, lately he has made a tremendous difference to Pep Guardiola’s side. Once he gains full match fitness it is not unreasonable to expect a raft of assists, a number of crucial goals, high level performances and, ultimately, trophies for De Bruyne during the remainder of the campaign. Should City repeat their treble and De Bruyne play a pivotal role then he could be right in the mix, especially if he has a good tournament at the Euros.

Harry Kane is having a tremendous season for Bayern Munich on a personal level and should he lead England to glory in the Euros he could be a shout for the top award. However, Bayern look like missing out on domestic honours this season, short of them making a stunning comeback in the Bundesliga, so unless they win the Champions League they could end up empty handed. This would increase Kane’s personal trophy drought and would hardly further his case to win the Ballon d’OR. 

Ballon d’Or 2024 Prediction

There are good reasons for backing any one of Bellingham, Mbappe or Haaland, and there are reasons why punters may think one of the outside bets we mentioned could make a late run.

At we think that Bellingham is looking the most likely. He has pulled Madrid through in games where the team have underperformed this season and if he continues to find the net and Madrid win the title he will be difficult to ignore. A Champions League win for Madrid, and/or a triumph in the Euros for England could swing it Bellingham’s way. At the moment we feel that the former Borussia Dortmund and Birmingham City star has been the most consistent out of the top three candidates and his is our tip to lift the trophy.

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Chris is a former athlete and a qualified PE teacher. He is a keen football fan, watching many matches at different levels throughout the season, and enjoys following many different sports. With betting and sports sites, he has a keen eye for detail and can to highlight positives and negatives for users. His experience in sport as a performer, teacher, writer and fan allows him to see things from many different perspectives. Editorial Promise