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The final of EURO 2020 will be played at Wembley on Sunday the 11th of July. Fortunately, the arena will be able to seat 60,000 fans or 75% of the max capacity. The conclusion of major tournaments is of course the most exciting time, and this means that the betting opportunities are endless. To find the best bets on the EURO final we have decided to look at past finals to determine where the best odds can be found. We have compiled facts and interesting statistics from previous EURO finals to make it easier to target specific betting markets such as O/U Goals, 1X2 and also O/U cards dealt in the match.

Final Events

We have finally arrived at the EURO 2020 final! Italy vs England have all chances to become a remarkable final, and there is no doubt the two best teams in Europe are set to clash! Who will win EURO 2020? We try to find out with our analysis of both teams, and as always we are also ready to present our betting tip for the match.
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History of EURO Finals - The Story of the Underdogs

Denmark - EURO 1992

Arguably the first big surprise winner in the history of European Championships was Denmark in 1992. The Danes weren't even supposed to compete at the tournament, but as Yugoslavia had gone into war, a place opened up. That was the start of one of the most unlikely tales of major football championships ever.

Denmark was a solid team, but struggling with internal problems, like the "great refusal" of Miki Laudrup, who left the ship due to disagreements with the coach, Richard Møller-Nielsen. "My national team is called Barcelona," Michael clarified before his final retirement, which took place after the Belfast game against Northern Ireland. In which the coach, badly tolerated even by the national press, had "dared" to replace the entire Laudrup family in one fell swoop. Reckless.

The path of Denmark in the first round: First a draw against England, then a loss to the hosts, Sweden, and eventually a lifesaving win against France. As such Denmark made the playoffs with the smallest of margins where the goal from Lars Elstrup became the difference-maker. The other group was won by the Netherlands, with a two-point margin over the Germans.

The first semi-final pitted the world champions Germany against the host nation Sweden, resulting in a 3-2 Mannschaft victory. The other semi-final saw Denmark reinvigorate their role as outsiders after an amazing match where Henrik Larsen scored twice for 2-2 at full time. The match went to penalties where Marco van Basten missed the only penalty. Or actually, where Schmeichel made a historical save.

The final saw a great triumph for Denmark, who won 2-0 over the Germans and won the first trophy in their history.

Greece - EURO 2004

The great surprise of Greece in 2004 will probably never be forgotten, and it has gone down as one of the biggest underdog stories in modern history. The head coach, Otto Rehhagel, will forever be a legend in Greece, and so will players like Karagounis, Charisteas, Papadopoulos and all the others.

The way the Greeks managed to win their unlikely gold medals was also something out of the ordinary. After surprisingly winning against Portugal in their opening match, a draw against Spain followed, and while they lost against Russia in the last, it was still enough for playoffs with the smallest margin possible over Spain.

The playoff run by Greece also belongs to the history books as they completed three straight wins, all 1-0 while playing what many consider boring and destructive football. Nevertheless, France, the Czech Republic and eventually Portugal had to bend for the Greek defensive style.

The final match against Portugal was an exciting one despite the “boring” reputation Greece have got from EURO 2004. Portugal might have won the shots 16-4, but Greece scored the only goal in the 57th minute through Charisteas. If we will ever see a surprise as big as Greece in European Championships is definitely doubtful, but if we do, it certainly creates a tournament filled with excitement, and what Greece accomplished in 2004 will never be forgotten - no matter if you’re Greek or from anywhere else in the world.

Memorable EURO Final - Our pick

While there have been several very memorable finals in EURO football, our choice was not hard to make. The title without a doubt goes to France - Italy at EURO 2000. The tournament itself was filled with excitement in 2000, and we saw legends such as Figo, Totti, Zidane, Davids, Beckham and many more lead their teams.

The final between France and Italy was expected to be a fierce battle where both teams had earned a spot to fight for the gold. Italy had gone undefeated through all of the tournament, while France only had faltered once, 2-3 against the Netherlands. So what makes this final extra memorable? Certainly, the way the events unfolded.

Marco Delvecchio started the scoring at De Kuip in Rotterdam after 55 minutes, and as Italy traditionally started playing defensively and wasting time it looked like they were going to succeed once more. The Italians had previously only conceded only two goals at EURO 2000 confirming their skill at this type of play. Things would take a turn for the worse though - in the 94th (!) minute the substitute Sylvain Wiltord bombed in 1-1 to bring the final to extra time.

What followed was a game-ending goal by David Trezeguet, and his half volley is legendary to this day. What makes the feat even bigger is that France secured their double as European and world champions, as they previously had won the World Cup in 1998.

Interesting betting statistics in EURO Finals

The final stage of the European Championships is for obvious reasons when the excitement reaches the highest point. For many people, this is also true for betting on the EURO:s. The betting options for the finals are massive, and the opinions about who will lift the trophy are usually split among fans and experts alike.

To get a historical perspective on how the EURO finals might play out, we have turned to history for advice. This can give a picture of what we can expect in general, even if results closer in time are obviously more useful than those from the past. We have looked at the goal average, O/U goals, cards dealt and if the favourite has won the match. Let’s dive straight into it!

Goal Average at EURO Finals 2.19

Over/Under 2.5 Goals 5 Over, 11 Under

  • 1960: Soviet - Yugoslavia 1-1 (2-1 ET)
  • 1964: Spain - Soviet 2-1
  • 1968: Italy - Yugoslavia 1-1 & 2-0 (Two-legged final)
  • 1972: W. Germany - Soviet 3-0
  • 1976: Czechoslovakia - W. Germany 2-2 (5-3 penalties)
  • 1980: W. Germany - Belgium 2-1
  • 1984: France - Spain 2-0
  • 1988: Netherlands - Soviet 2-0
  • 1992: Denmark - Netherlands 2-0
  • 1996: Germany - Czech 1-1 (2-1 ET)
  • 2000: France - Italy 1-1 (2-1 ET)
  • 2004: Greece - Portugal 1-0
  • 2008: Spain - Germany 1-0
  • 2012: Spain - Italy 4-0
  • 2016: Portugal - France 0-0 (1-0 ET)

When taking a look at EURO finals the picture becomes clear quite fast - fewer goals are scored in finals than at any other stage. This is no surprise, but certainly, something to always keep in mind when betting on EURO finals, or any other major tournament for that matter. The teams will always take fewer risks and play safer than previously when gold is on the line.

Another reason we see a lot of low-scoring finals is partly due to teams reaching the finals always being solid in that end, otherwise, they wouldn’t have made it to the finals, to begin with. Still, 11 out of 16 EURO finals going under the 2.5 goal line is exceptional, and even more so when we consider that the line has only been beaten once since 1980. That time, in 2012, the excellent Spain demolished Italy 4-0.

Do the favorites always win in EURO final?

While it’s hard to even see a team as a massive favourite in EURO finals usually, the few times we have, the underdogs have pulled through great upsets. We talked about Denmark and Greece earlier, and that’s also in fact the few times a big favourite has entered the final, to begin with. So, 2 out of 2 on the big underdog making it all the way to gold.

The remaining EURO finals have been close affairs where either team winning would not be considered a massive upset. If we are to answer the question at hand, then no, the favourites don’t always win, far from it.

Yellow/Red cards at EURO 2016/2012/2008/2004 Finals

  • 1960: No Record
  • 1964: No Record
  • 1968: No Record
  • 1972: 1 Yellow
  • 1976: 2 Yellow
  • 1980: 4 Yellow
  • 1984: 5 Yellow, 1 Red
  • 1988: 5 Yellow
  • 1992: 6 Yellow
  • 1996: 4 Yellow
  • 2000: 4 Yellow
  • 2004: 6 Yellow
  • 2008: 4 Yellow
  • 2012: 2 Yellow
  • 2016: 10 Yellow

Over/Under 3.5 cards (Yellow = 1, Red = 2) 9 Over, 3 Under

Betting on the amount of yellow and red cards in EURO matches can be very entertaining, but also profitable with the right information. A quite common line where odds meet at around 2.0 is usually O/U 3.5. For knockout matches, it can go up to 4.5, and especially for finals. Still, we can see that EURO finals historically are heavy on the bookings. The only exceptions so far are back in 1972/1976 and the EURO final in 2012. Besides those exceptions, we have seen 9 out of 12 go over the 3.5 line, and most of the time with a good margin too. The 2016 final between Portugal and France is especially memorable as the cards were raining down for a total of 10 when it was all over.

For the EURO 2020 final it could be quite lucrative to bet on both the average set line and maybe go for a long shot of over 5.5, 6.5 or even maybe more if the odds are high enough. It’s also worth paying attention to which teams face each other of course, but we can conclude that EURO finals tend to see a big amount of yellow cards awarded though. Also worth noting is the lack of reds, which make sense as players are careful to not get sent off, and the referees also require maybe just a little bit more for such a harsh judgement.