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Premier League Outright Odds: Arsenal retain lead as Liverpool go second ahead of favourites Man City

Published on December 4, 2023
Written by Chris

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Premier League Outright Odds: Arsenal retain lead as Liverpool go second ahead of favourites Man City
  • Premier League outrights: latest odds
  • Arsenal take over at the top and Liverpool go second after City draw again
  • Burnley grab first home win to move off the bottom

The Premier League is set for a busy week with a full midweek programme followed by a full weekend. look at the state of play so far along with the current outright odds ahead of rounds 15 and 16. Check out our top list before making your picks.

Premier League: How things stand

Arsenal extend their lead after a home win over Wolves. Liverpool move into second after securing a late win over Fulham in a seven-goal thriller at Anfield. They are two points behind the Gunners and a point ahead of favourites Manchester City, who were again held to a draw, this time by Tottenham, who underlined their credentials after three successive losses. Aston Villa came away from Bournemouth with a 2-2 draw in a game which held significance at both ends of the table. Newcastle United once again won at home, seeing Manchester United off in a far more emphatic style than the 1-0 scoreline suggests. The Magpies leapfrogged their opponents and are now in sixth position, three points off the top four. At the bottom, Burnley moved off the bottom with their first home win of the season, a thumping 5-0 victory over fellow strugglers Sheffield United. The result leaves the Blades bottom of the table. Everton, still reeling after a 10 point deduction for a breach of the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSRs), claimed a vital 1-0 away win at Nottingham Forest, a result which drags Steve Cooper’s side back into the relegation scrap.

Matches PlayedPoints
3Manchester City1430
4Aston Villa1429
5Tottenham Hotspur1427
6Newcastle United1426
7Manchester United1424
8Brighton and Hove A1422
9West Ham United1421
12Crystal Palace1416
13Wolverhampton 1415
15Nottingham Forest1413
16AFC Bournemouth1413
17Luton Town149
20Sheffield United145

*Everton deducted 10 points for a breach of the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSRs).

Obviously the strength of opposition played, injuries and metrics such as XG, XGA and XPTS have a bearing on odds as well as actual league position. Check out our first blog on this season’s Premier League outright betting for more details on these metrics after 10 games.

Premier League outright odds have looked at bet365’s prices for Premier League outrights at 6pm on December 4 2023 at 9am. The odds in brackets are the prices ahead of matchday 13, taken from bet365 at 9am on November 29, 2023.

Premier League winner

Manchester City: 8/11 (8/13)

Arsenal: 3/1 (7/2)

Liverpool: 4/1 (9/2)

Newcastle United 40/1 (66/1)

Tottenham Hotspur 50/1 (50/1)

Aston Villa 66/1 (50/1)

Manchester United: 100/1 (80/1)

Chelsea: 200/1 (250/1)

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 750/1 (750/1)

Top four finish

Manchester City: 1/40 (1/50)

Arsenal: 1/14 (1/10)

Liverpool: 1/8 (1/7)

Newcastle United 5/4 (13/8)

Tottenham Hotspur: 2/1 (2/1)

Aston Villa 3/1 (2/1)

Manchester United: 5/1 (9/2)

Chelsea: 11/2 (7/1)

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 10/1 (8/1)

West Ham United: 100/1 (66/1)

Brentford: 500/1 (500/1)


Sheffield United: 1/14 (1/8)

Luton Town: 1/4 (3/10)

Burnley: 8/13 (1/2)

Everton: 5/2(7/4)

Nottingham Forest 11/2 (6/1)

Bournemouth: 5/1 (9/2)

Fulham: 8/1 (10/1)

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 12/1 (14/1)

Crystal Palace: 16/1 (20/1)

Odds correct as of December 4 2023, 6pm from bet365. Odds subject to change.

Man City retain their position as title favourites, despite more dropped points at home and their closest rivals winning. Their odds for the title and a fourth place finish have lengthened slightly.

Arsenal, who stay top, saw their odds shoreten slightly, as did Liverpool after their late turnaround against Fulham.

Newcastle United are seen as likely top four finishers by the bookie despite their injury crisis. Their odds for a top four finish and for the title, where they are seen as outsiders, have both shortened. Their performance against Manchester United was very impressive, especially given the amount of players they have out. However, they have two tricky away fixtures at Everton and Spurs this week and a lack of numbers could make things difficult for Eddie Howe’s side. After three defeats in a row, during which they have sustained some injuries to key players, Spurs bounced back with a draw at Man City. Their odds for the top four and for the title remain the same. Manchester United’s odds for the top four have lengthened after their defeat at Newcastle was another example of their current inablity to defeat sides in the top eight.

The three newly promoted sides remain favourites to go down. Sheffield United’s odds have shortened, moving to 1/14. Luton remain second favourites to drop down ahead of Burnley. Everton are fourth favourites to go down but if they continue to grind out results as they did away at Forest thier odds will continue to lengthen, despite their 10 point penalty. Bournemouth’s odds have lengthened again, they secured a point at home to fifth places Villa. Interestingly bet365 have Manchester City and Chelsea priced at 150/1 and 100/1 respectively to go down, presumably because of the possiblitly of sanctions should they be found guilty of any financial fair play breaches.

Bettors looking for value might want to look ahead in the season at things which may affect performance. For instance, several teams could be hit by withdrawals in January due to the African Cup of Nations. Therefore, using performances so far, along with metrics such as XG and XPTS, some may want a speculative punt on a team who they believe can put a run together, or, who they believe will endure a slump and take advantage of the current odds. In the case of Everton, should they keep up their current form they may well stay up despite the 10 point deduction. Bettors need to monitor how this affects the mood and morale of the players and see how this affects their performances.

Check out’s best Premier League betting sites.

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Chris is a former athlete and a qualified PE teacher. He is a keen football fan, watching many matches at different levels throughout the season, and enjoys following many different sports. With betting and sports sites, he has a keen eye for detail and can to highlight positives and negatives for users. His experience in sport as a performer, teacher, writer and fan allows him to see things from many different perspectives. Editorial Promise