Premier League outright betting: League beginning to take shape

• Premier League taking shape after 10 rounds of matches
• Man City remain title favourites
• Promoted teams the three favourites for the drop

After 10 matchdays the Premier League table is beginning to take shape. While there have been a few sides under and over achieving according to metrics such as xG, xGA and xPTS, the standings after 10 games, just over a quarter of the way through the season, can prove a good indication to bettors for outrights and for making picks on a match-to-match basis. Betting.com look at the state of play so far along with the current outright odds.

Premier League: How things stand

Ahead of matchday 11, Tottenham are leading the table by two points from Arsenal and Manchester City, with Liverpool in fourth place and Aston Villa and Newcastle United completing the top 6. At the bottom of the table the three newly promoted clubs occupy the three relegation places with Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Everton making up the bottom six. While there will be some teams who may have had it slightly easier or harder than others, or some teams who may have been affected by good or bad luck, 10 games are generally enough to get an indication for your futures bets on the Premier League.

While Spurs leading the Premier League table might not have been a major shock, despite their underwhelming campaign last time out, their levels of consistency, having only dropped four points, certainly is. They undoubtedly had good players last season, and despite the loss of Harry Kane they appear to be stronger overall with James Maddison hitting the ground running. Ange Postegoglou has made a superb start to his tenure in North London and after 10 games you have to think that Tottenham will almost certainly be in the top six at the end of the season and could possibly sustain their title challenge. 

Arsenal continue to challenge at the top, Liverpool appear to be back on track after last season’s relative struggles, however, treble winners Manchester City remain the bookies favourites and are handily placed, two points behind Spurs. With Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Brighton also impressing the race for European qualification looks more competitive than ever. And this is without mentioning Manchester United and Chelsea, neither of whom have impressed this season, but both have got the talent to put a run of results together and trouble those currently ahead of them.

At the bottom the three promoted teams look to be struggling. Sheffield United look weakest, having only collected a solitary point from a possible 30. Bournemouth are another side who could be in the relegation mix along with Nottingham Forest. Everton have picked up, however, if a 12 point deduction for breaking FFP regulations becomes a reality, then the Toffees could face an uphill battle. 

Are the first 10 games a fair reflection?

When looking at Premier League outright betting it is important to consider whether the table is an accurate representation of performance so far.On the whole, the table appears to be a fairly accurate reflection of how teams have performed. However, when you look at the Expected Points (xPTS) and other metrics such as Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) it shows that there could be a few shifts as the season progresses. 

Bettors also need to take into account injuries, suspensions and the impact of European matches. Man City had looked imperious, however, the suspension of Rodri, one of the few players who’s absence would be keenly felt in such a strong squad, coincided with losses at Wolves and Arsenal. 

As far as the metrics are concerned, they can give an indication, but a strong xG is no good if you are profligate with your finishing. Looking at the xPTS table it is clear that it would not be a great surprise if Newcastle United repeated last season’s top four finish. The Magpies lie second in the xPTS and xGA table, while topping the xG list. Of the rest, Chelsea’s position in the xPTS table supports the theory that they could put a run together, however, they have been undermined so far by poor finishing, which all of the statistics in the world can not always fix. However, if a team is near the top of the league, but are struggling on xG, xGA and xPTS a downturn in form may be around the corner, though it can also be argued that good teams can grind out results when not playing well. So these metrics can be used as an indication for your Premier League outright betting, however, rememeber that it is ultimately points on the board that count.

Premier League Expected Points (xPTS)

1. Manchester City – 19.31

2. Newcastle United – 19.12

3. Liverpool – 17.56

4. Chelsea – 17.34

5. Tottenham – 17.24

6. Arsenal – 16.11

7. Brentford – 15.26

8. Aston Villa – 14.94

9. Brighton – 14.45

10. Everton – 14.42

11. Manchester United – 12.56

12. Nottingham Forest – 11.04

13. Crystal Palace – 10.92

14. West Ham – 9.72

15. Wolves – 9.07

16. Luton – 8.78

17. Fulham – 8.68

18. Bournemouth – 5.78

19. Burnley – 5.76

20. Sheffield United – 3.74

Premier League outright odds

The bookies obviously take all of this into account when setting their prices. Betting.com have looked at bet365’s prices at 9am on November 3, 2023. We will keep you updated with these over the following weeks of the season as you may want to make or modify your outright picks according to performances as the season progresses.

bet365

(4.8/5)

Premier League winner

Manchester City: 4/6

Liverpool: 9/2

Arsenal:9/2

Tottenham: 10/1

Newcastle United: 40/1

Aston Villa: 66/1

Manchester United: 150/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 150/1

Chelsea: 150/1

Top four finish

Manchester City: 1/66

Arsenal: 1/6

Liverpool: 1/5

Tottenham: 8/13

Newcastle United: 2/1

Aston Villa: 9/2

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 5/1

Manchester United: 6/1

Chelsea: 7/1

West Ham United: 150/1

Relegation

Sheffield United: 1/10

Luton Town: 2/11

Burnley: 11/8

Bournemouth: 6/4

Everton: 3/1

Nottingham Forest: 6/1

Fulham: 8/1

Odds correct as of November 3 2023, 9am, from bet365. Odds subject to change.

Bettors looking for value on their Premier League outright bets, along with their wagers on a weekly basis, might want to look ahead in the season at things which may affect performance. For instance, several teams could be hit by withdrawals in January due to the African Cup of Nations. Therefore, using performances so far, along with the metrics we mentioned, some may want a speculative punt on a team who they believe can put a run together, or, who they believe will endure a slump and take advantage of the current odds.

Looking for outrigh bets on the EPL? Check out Betting.com’s best Premier League betting sites.