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Premier League outright betting: Update ahead of round 12

Published on November 10, 2023
Written by Chris

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Premier League outright betting: Update ahead of round 12
  • Premier League outrights: latest odds
  • Man City hit the front as Spurs and Arsenal lose unbeaten tags
  • First win for Blades

The Premier League table is taking shape ahead of the November international break.. look at the state of play so far along with the current outright odds.

Premier League: How things stand

Ahead of matchday 12, favourites Manchester City are in pole position. Tottenham drop to second after losing a thrilling and chaotic match to Chelsea. Liverpool’s point at Luton saw them climb above Arsenal on goal difference after the Gunners lost for the first time in the league this season, going down 1-0 at Newcastle United.  That win saw Newcastle close to within four points of the top four and two points behind fifth placed Aston Villa who lost at Nottingham Forest. At the bottom of the table Luton’s point at home against Liverpool saw them climb above Bournemouth who lost heavily at Man City. Burnley stay above Sheffield United on goal difference, however, the Blades got their first win of the season against Wolves at Bramall Lane.

Matches PlayedPoints
1Manchester City1127
2Tottenham Hotspur1126
5Aston Villa1122
6Newcastle United1120
7Brighton & Hove A1118
8Manchester United1118
11Crystal Palace1115
12West Ham United1114
13Nottingham Forest1113
17Luton Town116
18AFC Bournemouth115
20Sheffield United114

Obviously the strength of opposition played, injuries and metrics such as XG, XGA and XPTS have a bearing on odds as well as actual league position. Check out our last blog for more details on these metrics after 10 games.

Premier League outright odds have looked at bet365’s prices at 3pm on November 10, 2023.

Man City’s big win over Bournemouth, along with Spurs and Arsenal losing, enhanced Pep Guardiola’s side’s status as favourites. 

Liverpool’s draw at Luton saw their price lengthen slightly, with the bookie acknowledging that Arsenal’s defeat came in a difficult game at Newcastle United. The Magpies are still seen as challengers for the top four, along with Aston Villa, though Villa’s defeat at Nottingham Forest saw their top four price lengthen. Newcastle’s injuries and suspensions may prove a hinderance amid a hectic fixture schedule in the coming weeks, but as more players leave the treatment table Eddie Howe’s side are expected to be strong candidates for a top 6 finish.

Spurs title odds increased and their injuries and suspensions will be taken into account when assessing how the next few weeks could go for them, with some tricky fixtures coming up. They are still expected to finish in the top four given their points haul so far. Manchester United and Chelsea are still to convince this season, but neither can be ignored in the race for European places.

At the bottom, a heavy defeat at Man City was not enough to greatly increase the probability of Bournemouth going down, with the Cherries still fourth favourites behind the three newly promoted clubs. While Sheffield United can be encouraged after a first win and Luton can take heart from a draw against Liverpool where they possible deserved better both are still fancied to go down along with Burnley.

Premier League winner

Manchester City: 2/5

Arsenal: 6/1

Liverpool: 7/1

Tottenham: 14/1

Newcastle United: 40/1

Aston Villa: 150/1

Manchester United: 150/1

Chelsea: 250/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 500/1

Top four finish

Manchester City: 1/100

Arsenal: 1/6

Liverpool: 1/5

Tottenham: 10/11

Newcastle United: 5/4

Manchester United: 5/1

Chelsea: 5/1

Aston Villa: 6/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 7/1

West Ham United: 80/1

Brentford: 150/1


Sheffield United: 1/6

Luton Town: 1/4

Burnley: 8/11

Bournemouth: 6/4

Everton: 7/2

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 7/1

Fulham: 8/1

Nottingham Forest 10/1

Crystal Palace: 33/1

Odds correct as of November 10 2023, 3pm, from bet365. Odds subject to change.

Last week’s odds

Just so you can see how the odds have shifted here are last week’s odds

Premier League winner

Manchester City: 4/6

Liverpool: 9/2


Tottenham: 10/1

Newcastle United: 40/1

Aston Villa: 66/1

Manchester United: 150/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 150/1

Chelsea: 150/1

Top four finish

Manchester City: 1/66

Arsenal: 1/6

Liverpool: 1/5

Tottenham: 8/13

Newcastle United: 2/1

Aston Villa: 9/2

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 5/1

Manchester United: 6/1

Chelsea: 7/1

West Ham United: 150/1


Sheffield United: 1/10

Luton Town: 2/11

Burnley: 11/8

Bournemouth: 6/4

Everton: 3/1

Nottingham Forest: 6/1

Fulham: 8/1

Odds correct as of November 3 2023, 9am, from bet365. 

Bettors looking for value might want to look ahead in the season at things which may affect performance. For instance, several teams could be hit by withdrawals in January due to the African Cup of Nations. Therefore, using performances so far, along with metrics such as XG and XPTS, some may want a speculative punt on a team who they believe can put a run together, or, who they believe will endure a slump and take advantage of the current odds.

Check out’s best Premier League betting sites.

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Chris is a former athlete and a qualified PE teacher. He is a keen football fan, watching many matches at different levels throughout the season, and enjoys following many different sports. With betting and sports sites, he has a keen eye for detail and can to highlight positives and negatives for users. His experience in sport as a performer, teacher, writer and fan allows him to see things from many different perspectives. Editorial Promise