Premier League Outright betting: EPL set to resume after international break

• Premier League outrights: latest odds
• Everton drop into bottom three after being rocked by 10 point penalty
• Blades build on first win with point at Brighton

The Premier League resumes after the international break. Betting.com look at the state of play so far along with the current outright odds.

Premier League: How things stand

Ahead of matchday 13, favourites Manchester City remain in pole position, however, they had to settle for a point in a thrilling match at Stamford Bridge where a late Cole Palmer penalty gave the hosts a deserved point. Liverpool and Arsenal both closed the gap after wins, while Spurs dropped to fourth after their second successive defeat. And at the bottom Everton drop into the bottom three after a 10 point deduction for a breach of FFP rules.

Obviously the strength of opposition played, injuries and metrics such as XG, XGA and XPTS have a bearing on odds as well as actual league position. Check out our first blog on this season’s Premier League outright betting for more details on these metrics after 10 games.

Premier League outright odds

Betting.com have looked at bet365’s prices at 4pm on November 21, 2023.

Man City stay top and retain their position as favourites for both the title and, obviously, to finish in the top four. Victories for Arsenal and Liverpool saw their title odds shorten and their top four odds show that the bookies feel that only a major collapse would see either club slip to fifth or below. Tottenham’s title odds have lengthened after their second league loss in a row. The bookies are still seeing them as having a strong chance of making the top four, however, those odds have lengthened too. Spurs have suffered some injuries of late and this could impact their form during a tough run of fixtures.

Newcastle’s defeat at Bournemouth saw their odds lengthen for a top four finish and the title, where they were outsiders in the first place. However, it has not set the alarm bells ringing at the bookies as injuries and suspensions have proved a hinderance amid a hectic fixture schedule. The Magpies have, the Bournemouth game apart, handled this well and should more players leave the treatment table Eddie Howe’s side are expected to be strong candidates for a top 6 finish.

Manchester United have seen their odds cut as bookies and pundits alike have been forced to admit that as poor as some of their displays have been they have continued to pick up points. Should the Red Devils find some fluency and consistency they could well climb the league table, though if the performances do not come it is debatable whether they can keep up with the race for Europe. Chelsea will have been given a boost with their last two results and some may feel that they have turned the corner. At this stage can be ignored in the race for European places as they have the talent in their squad to put a string of wins together.

However, the big story is arguably at the bottom. Everton had climbed away from danger and another win against Crystal Palace saw Sean Dyche’s side’s relegation odds lengthen further. However, a 10 point deduction for a breach of FFP rules has seen the Toffees drop to 19th place. Their odds have now been cut to 2/1 with bet365. Bournemouth’s win over Newcastle saw their relegation odds lengthen, while Sheffield United are still favourites to go down, but a win over Wolves and then a draw away at Brighton have seen their odds lengthen slightly. Luton Town now sit just outside the relegation zone, however, they remain second favourites to go down. Burnley, the other newly promoted club are third favourites for the drop. The Clarets currently occupy bottom spot in the table.

Premier League winner

Manchester City: 1/2

Arsenal: 4/1

Liverpool: 5/1

Tottenham: 25/1

Newcastle United: 80/1

Aston Villa: 100/1

Manchester United: 100/1

Chelsea: 250/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 750/1

Top four finish

Manchester City: 1/50

Arsenal: 1/9

Liverpool: 1/6

Tottenham: 5/4

Newcastle United: 13/8

Aston Villa 7/2

Manchester United: 9/2

Chelsea: 5/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 8/1

West Ham United: 66/1

Brentford: 200/1

Relegation

Sheffield United: 1/5

Luton Town: 2/9

Burnley: 8/13

Everton: 2/1

Bournemouth: 5/2

Fulham: 7/1

Nottingham Forest: 8/1

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 14/1

Crystal Palace: 33/1

Odds correct as of November 21 2023, 4pm, from bet365. Odds subject to change.

Odds ahead of matchday 12

Just so you can see how the odds have shifted here are the odds prior to matchday 12:

Premier League winner

Manchester City: 2/5

Arsenal: 6/1

Liverpool: 7/1

Tottenham: 14/1

Newcastle United: 40/1

Aston Villa: 150/1

Manchester United: 150/1

Chelsea: 250/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 500/1

Top four finish

Manchester City: 1/100

Arsenal: 1/6

Liverpool: 1/5

Tottenham: 10/11

Newcastle United: 5/4

Manchester United: 5/1

Chelsea: 5/1

Aston Villa: 6/1

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 7/1

West Ham United: 80/1

Brentford: 150/1

Relegation

Sheffield United: 1/6

Luton Town: 1/4

Burnley: 8/11

Bournemouth: 6/4

Everton: 7/2

Wolverhampton Wanderers: 7/1

Fulham: 8/1

Nottingham Forest 10/1

Crystal Palace: 33/1

Bettors looking for value might want to look ahead in the season at things which may affect performance. For instance, several teams could be hit by withdrawals in January due to the African Cup of Nations. Therefore, using performances so far, along with metrics such as XG and XPTS, some may want a speculative punt on a team who they believe can put a run together, or, who they believe will endure a slump and take advantage of the current odds. In the case of Everton, should they keep up their current form they may well stay up despite the 10 point deduction. Bettors need to monitor how this affects the mood and morale of the players and see how this affects their performances.

Check out Betting.com’s best Premier League betting sites.

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