Premier League outright betting

• Premier League outrights: latest odds
• Liverpool lead the table but City remain favourites
• Arsenal falter, Aston Villa continue their challenge

The Premier League has emerged from a busy festive period. Betting.com look at the state of play so far along with the current outright odds ahead of a full programme of midweek fixtures.

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Premier League: How things stand

Arsenal lead the table by a point frm Liverpool and Aston Villa, who look like they are in the top four to stay. Manchester City are in fourth after dropping more points. City are five points off the top and will lose further ground this weekend as their match against Brentford is postponed due to the World Club Cup. Tottenham look to have turned the corner after a blip and are in fifth place, ahead of Newcastle United who are still weighed down with injuries. Manchester United, West Ham United, Brighton and Hove Albion and Chelsea make up the top 10 and are all still very much in the race for Europe.

Sheffield United remain bottom of the table, with Burnley and Luton just ahead of them. Nottingham Forest are looking the most likely to go down other than the three newly promoted sides, having dropped to 17th.

*Everton deducted 10 points for a breach of the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSRs).

Obviously the strength of opposition played, injuries and metrics such as XG, XGA and XPTS have a bearing on odds as well as actual league position. Check out our first blog on this season’s Premier League outright betting for more details on these metrics after 10 games.

Premier League outright odds

Betting.com have looked at bet365’s prices for Premier League outrights at 11am on January 29 2024. The odds in brackets are the prices ahead of matchday 18 taken from bet365 at 6pm on December 21, 2023.

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Premier League winner

Manchester City: 8/13 ( 5/4)

Liverpool: 9/4 (11/4)

Arsenal: 17/2 (5/2)

Liverpool: 11/4 (4/1)

Tottenham Hotspur 33/1 (33/1)

Aston Villa: 40/1 (14/1)

Top four finish

Manchester City: 1/50 (1/25) (1/40)

Liverpool: 1/50 (1/12)

Arsenal: 1/10 (1/16)

Aston Villa: 10/11 (10/11)

Tottenham Hotspur: 10/11 (13/8)

Chelsea 12/1 (10/1)

Newcastle United 12/1 (11/4)

Manchester United: 12/1 (9/1)

Brighton and Hove Albtion: 20/1 (25/1)

West Ham United: 25/1 (100/1)

Relegation

Sheffield United: 1/16 (1/12)

Burnley 1/3 (8/13)

Luton Town: 1/2 (2/11)

Nottingham Forest 7/4 (5/2)

Everton 3/1 (12/1)

Crystal Palace 10/1 (10/1)

Brentford 12/1 (25/1)

Fulham 22/1 (25/1)

Bournemouth 66/1 (16/1)

Wolverhampton Wanderers 80/1 (12/1)

To stay up

Sheffield United 9/1

Burnley 9/4

Luton Town 6/4

Nottingham Forest 2/5

Everton 2/9

Crystal Palace 1/20

Brentford 1/25

Fulham 1/80

Odds correct as of January 29 2024, 11am from bet365. Odds subject to change.

Man City retain their position as title favourites, and appear to be back to form after dropping a few points in the lead up to Christmas. Liverpool lead the table by five points, which could be cut to two should City win their game in hand. Their odds have shortened as they continue to fight and impress on four fronts despite a series of injuries and international call-ups. Arsenal have stuttered over the festive period, however, they appear to be back to form, though their odds have lengthened. Despite being level on points with City and Arsenal, Aston Villa’s odds have lengthened, though should they keep pace for another month, pundits and bookmakers who envisage Unai Emery’s side falling away might have to reconsider. Tottenham’s odds have remained the same.

Villa and Spurs are favourites to join Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal in the top four. Newcastle United, who’s injury crisis really caught up over the festive period, Manchester United and Chelsea are thought to be the next most likely ahead of Brighton and Hove Albion and West Ham United.

The three newly promoted sides remain favourites to go down. Sheffield United may have made a slight improvement since the return of Chris Wilder, however, pundits and bookies see it as too little too late. Burnley are seen as the next most likely to go, while Luton Town’s odds have lengthened, though despite picking up some impressive results and being difficult to play against, the general feeling is that they will not quite do enought to survive. Nottingham Forest and Everton are viewed as the next most likely to go, though further PSR charges made against Everton have seen their odds shorten. PSR charges put against Forest have also affected their price, with the bookies clearly feeling that relegation is a possiblity for the club, should they receive a points deduction. Crystal Palace are struggling for form and while their odds have shortened it is felt that it would take a huge improvement from three clubs below them for them to end up going down.

Bettors looking for value might want to look ahead in the season at things which may affect performance, such as the possiblity of a points deduction because of PSR charges, or in the case of Liverpool, the announcement that Jurgen Klopp will leave at the end of the season, though this currently appears to have strengthened the resolve of the players. Therefore, using performances so far, along with metrics such as XG and XPTS, some may want a speculative punt on a team who they believe can put a run together, or, who they believe will endure a slump and take advantage of the current odds.

Best of luck with your outright bets and always remember to gamble responsibly.

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