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Serie A Outright Betting Tips & Predictions

Published on December 25, 2022
Updated on November 14, 2023
Written by Sam

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Serie A Outright Betting Tips & Predictions

Completely dominant in the first half of the campaign, Napoli are in at 4/9 to lift the Scudetto at the end of the season. 

Behind them, a fierce battle for the top four is expected with second place Milan only six points ahead of Roma in seventh. 

Verona, Sampdoria and Cremonese have been cut adrift at the bottom with a six-point gap between 18th and Spezia in 17th. All three of those teams are odds-on for the drop.

While there are some sizeable gaps between teams already, there is a long way to go in this Serie A season with just 15 of 38 matches played so far. 

Winner: Napoli

4/9 (Unibet)

Aiming for just their third Scudetto and first since 1990, Napoli are under pressure when the season resumes. The expectation is enormous, and their rate of 2.73 points per match is clearly unsustainable. 

There is no question that the club from Naples have been Italy’s strongest side, though. The attack grabs the headlines, but the defence has been resolute when required, too. 

Matches against Inter and Juventus before the halfway mark of January are huge. Take two positive results there, and Luciano Spalletti’s side might be able to cruise to the finish line. 

Relegation: Spezia

7/5 (Sporting Index)

A draw with Udinese followed by a win over Verona in their last two matches made Spezia more comfortable. It has, however, been a very difficult season for the Aquilotti.

Only the bottom two have conceded more goals. Their -0.69 expected goal difference per 90 is just 0.03 better than the worst mark in the league.

Spezia face Atalanta and Roma in two of their next four league matches, and had not picked up even a point away from home until the win over Verona.

A six-point advantage over Cremonese in 18th is significant given how mightily the bottom three have struggled, but Spezia’s performances have been very similar to the sides currently in the relegation zone. 

Even with the points on the board, there is value here. 

Top Assists: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

5/1 (Unibet)

Georgian winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has taken Serie A by storm. 

Shining in domestic and continental action, the Tbilisi native ranks in the 97th percentile in expected assists and 95th percentile in shot-creating actions. 

Kvaratskhelia has five league assists to his name already, putting him just two off the league lead held by Sergej Milinkovic-Savic. He is third behind teammate Piotr Zielinski and Gerard Deulofeu on the expected assist leaderboard. 

If he stays fit, Kvaratskhelia’s ball-carrying ability is going to create countless chances for teammates. Napoli have shown they are clinical enough to take advantage of those opportunities. 

Top Four: Roma 

5/2 (Unibet)

Roma are only three points off fourth despite winning just once in their last five league matches. 

Jose Mourinho’s side boast the joint-best expected goal difference per 90, but have underachieved those numbers at both ends of the pitch.

A team-wide finishing slump is not going to continue throughout the season, particularly for players of the calibre of Tammy Abraham, Andrea Belotti, Nicolo Zaniolo and Lorenzo Pellegrini. 

At the other end of the pitch, Mourinho’s trademark defensive organisation has largely worked, but they might just need a bit more luck.

With so little separating the chasing pack, there is great value backing I Giallorossi for the top four. 

The biggest threat to this wager is Mourinho departing for the Portugal vacancy, though it has been rumoured that he could do both jobs in parallel.

Top Goalscorer: Victor Osimhen

9/4 (William Hill)

Top of the charts with nine goals, Victor Osimhen is unsurprisingly the favourite to finish as top goalscorer. Four players are within two goals of the Nigeria striker, though, and he has never scored more than 14 in a league season.

Fitness is the issue with Osimhen. He has made 39 starts over his two full seasons with Napoli, and has started 10 of 15 Serie A fixtures in 2022-23. 

If Napoli build an even greater lead, he could be protected for the Champions League, which will hurt his candidacy for the Capocannoniere award.

It is wide open at the moment, however. Unlike the last half-decade or so, a tally in the low twenties should be enough to finish as top goalscorer. 

With Napoli’s attack looking so potent, and Osimhen sitting third in expected goals, he is the best value as it stands. 

It is worth noting that when fit, he is an incredibly reliable producer both in chance quality and goal totals. 

All odds are subject to change

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