Arsenal have got off to a scorching start, winning 12 of 14 league matches.
They are seven points ahead of Newcastle in third despite the Magpies playing a game more.
With Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United enduring up and down starts to the season, it is all to play for in the race for Champions League qualification.
Wolves and Southampton occupy the bottom two places, but both have made managerial changes with Julen Lopetegui and Nathan Jones taking over respectively.
Nottingham Forest are in the final relegation spot, a lone point behind Everton and West Ham.
Winner: Manchester City
Arsenal’s start to the season has been surprising and impressive in equal measure.
Manchester City have a deeper, more accomplished squad, however, and remain the team to beat in the Premier League.
Pep Guardiola’s side have a knack for building big winning streaks in the second half of the season. The value of such squad depth could be exaggerated coming off the World Cup.
Gabriel Jesus’ injury is a big blow to Arsenal’s chances. This looks like their strongest team in a long time, but it is a massive ask to keep pace with City.
In contrast, Erling Haaland being able to rest over the last month is another factor favouring the reigning champions.
A lot of teams have played like champions for a 14-game stretch. Doing so for a further 24 fixtures while City rattle off wins is probably a step too far for Arsenal, making City the team to back in this market.
Relegation: Everton
Only Bournemouth have a worse expected goal difference per 90 than Everton. Bottom of the table Wolves are the only team to have scored fewer goals.
Frank Lampard has led the Toffees to some good wins during his spell in charge, but they picked up just four of the last 21 available points before the World Cup hiatus.
This squad is lacking quality in the final third, and they cannot rely on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to be available. At the other end of the pitch, there is a dependence on heroics to keep opponents out.
It was a battle to avoid the drop last season, and with only one point separating them from 18th, this price is very appealing.
Managerial changes below them further increase the pressure on Lampard.
Top Four: Newcastle
Newcastle are third in the table on merit. Eddie Howe’s side have lost once all season, and only the top two have a better expected goal difference per 90.
The Magpies have dealt with injuries to put 30 points on the board, leaving them four ahead of Manchester United, eight ahead of Liverpool and nine ahead of Chelsea (who all have a game in hand).
Despite a reputation for coaching poor defensive teams, Howe has guided Newcastle to the joint-best defensive record so far. Their recruitment has been superb, avoiding the kind of reckless spending that clubs in their situation are often guilty of.
With very few of their players involved in the World Cup and without the distraction of European football, Newcastle will fancy their chances of maintaining their form.
There’s also the possibility of a couple of influential January acquisitions, too.
PFA Player of the Year: Kevin De Bruyne
Erling Haaland’s record-breaking goalscoring makes him the odds-on favourite to win PFA Player of the Year. Haaland has a tendency to miss a few matches each season through injury, however, and his relentless goal-scoring slowed slightly before the World Cup.
Kevin De Bruyne remains the heartbeat of Guardiola’s City. He has been the provider for several of Haaland’s goals, and leads the league by a comfortable margin with nine assists.
Should City be positioned to win the league again when players are voting, De Bruyne is going to be in consideration. He’s into his thirties, but he remains the best midfielder in the world, and could become the first player ever to win the PFA Player of the Year three times.
Top Six: Brighton
Brighton are one point behind sixth, which makes this price seem very generous. They are fifth by expected goal difference per 90, with only the top four owning better marks.
The winless run after Roberto De Zerbi was hired has proven to be no more than a blip.
Brighton won three of four prior to the World Cup, including a 4-1 hammering of Chelsea and 3-1 win over Arsenal in the League Cup.
This price is partly down to reputation rather than performance. How the Seagulls fare against Arsenal and Liverpool in the next four gameweeks will have a significant impact on these odds.
A top six finish is not far-fetched even if it means placing ahead of two of the traditional ‘big six’.
All odds are subject to change
