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UEFA Champions League

Champions League betting tips and odds

Published on February 9, 2024
Written by Chris

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Champions League betting tips and odds
  • Last 16 ties throw up some interesting match-ups
  • Manchester City favourites to retain the trophy
  • Last 16 tips and odds

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Champions League last 16

After a two-month break European football is back. We are looking forward to a number of exciting matches in the knockout stages of the Champions League. The round of 16 begins on February 13-14 and we have analysed the eight two-legged ties that await. We provide details on each team’s record in the group stages, squad value, and bring you our tips and the odds, from bet365, on each team progressing. 

FC Copenhagen vs Manchester City

Looking to bet on Copenhagen vs Man City in the first leg match of this tie? Check out our preview.

FC CopenhagenvsManchester City
72.5 millionSquad value in €1.27 billion

The hopes of the Nordic nations in the Champions League rest with Danish champions FC Copenhagen, who made a big splash when they advanced from the group stage against tough opposition. Progressing from a group containing  Bayern Munich, Manchester United and Galatasaray is no mean achievement. On paper, it was thought that the  Danes could be fighting for third place at best, however, they exceeded all expectations. Some may feel that a third place finish and a Europa League place would have been better for Copenhagen as it would have given them a more realistic chance of making further progress. However, financially, a place in the knockout stages of the Champions League will come as a major boost.

In the round of 16, the toughest possible opposition awaits in the form of tournament favourites Manchester City. City have recently been boosted by the return to fitness of long-term injury victim Kevin De Bruyne. With the betting companies, of course, the Premier League team are sky-high favourites and here there is no reason to bet on anything other than fairly straight forward progress to the quarterfinals for Pep Guardiola’s side.

The fact that, due to the timing of the Danish season, FC Copenhagen have not played a competitive match in almost two months is another barrier which they need to overcome, They have also had problems with  injuries, especially in defence, where Birger Meling, David Khocholava and William Clem look set to miss at least the first meeting with City. 

These two teams faced each other as recently as 2022 in the Champions League group stage. The first meeting at the Etihad Stadium ended 5-0 to the Citizens. while the return in Copenhagen saw a goalless draw where City had a goal disallowed, missed a penalty and picked up a red card. 

Out of all of the last 16 match ups this appears to be the most straightforward with a bet on City to advance offering very limited value.

Odds to advance
FC Copenhagen20/1
Manchester City1/66

Our betting tip

Manchester City to go through – City have come back into form in recent weeks after dropping a lot of points, by their own high standards, in the run up to Christmas. However, at the time of writing, they sit two points behind Liverpool with a game in hand. The return of De Bruyne is hugely important for Guardiola’s men and all things being equal progress to the quarterfinals should be very straightforward. City are favourites to win the competitions and are also favourites to win the Premier League and the FA Cup. Many punters are speculating on whether City can win the treble for a second successive season.

RB Leipzig – Real Madrid

RB LeipzigvsReal Madrid
489.6 millionSquad value in €1.04 billion

Champions League specialists Real Madrid, European champions on a record 14 occasions,  are pitted against German side  Red Bull Leipzig in the round of 16. 

The Germans qualified for the round of 16 efficiently in a group consisting of Manchester City, Young Boys and Red Star.

Leipzig’s only dropped point came against City while Along with City, Madrid were the only team in the group stage to take maximum points in the group stage.s.

Leipzig have had a tough start to the new year with three straight losses at home in the Bundesliga, where they are fighting to finish in the top four, which means a Champions League place next season.

Madrid are in good form and are locked in a battle for La Liga with surprise package Girona with Barcelona a number of points behind.

If you look at Madrid’s results in the Champions League round of 16, they have progressed 11 times in 13 attempts since 2010/11. The only exits game in the “Covid seasons” 2019/20 and 2020/21 when they were eliminated, though this coincided with the team going through a transitional phase. Last season, the Spaniards knocked out Liverpool 6-2 on aggregate after a 5-2 win at Anfield and 1-0 victory at the Bernabeu.

LawOdds to advance
RB Leipzig5/2
Real Madrid2/7

Our tip

Real Madrid to go through – Madrid have been dragged down with a lot of long-term injuries, but have an impressive depth that has been the saving grace. Despite early cruciate ligament injuries to Eder Militao and Thibaut Courtois, it hasn’t stopped their pursuit of more titles. Vinicius Jr’s absence hasn’t caused too many problems either, and it remains to be seen whether they can make up for David Alaba’s knee injury in the long run.

Madrid look set to be serious contenders for another Champions League title. Jude Bellingham is having a superb season and with quality players throughout their ranks they are capable of causing any team problems, RB Leipzig will be difficult opponents, but over two games Madrid should have too much for them.

Lazio – Bayern Munich

LaziovsBayern Munich
241.6 millionSquad value in €965.5 million

The German giants Bayern Munich have, by their standards, had a mixed campaign.Head coach Thomas Tuchel has been questioned by pundits and fans several times during the course of the season. In the Bundesliga they are locked in a battle with Bayer Leverkusen, who looked incredibly strong.

During theJanuary window, the German champions have brought in Eric Dier on loan from Tottenham and signed Sacha Boey from Galatasaray. Bayern have suffered heavily with injuries lately. Kingsley Coman, Joshua Kimmich, Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano and Serge Gnabry are just some of the players missing ahead of the doubleheader with Lazio.

They have struggled at the back in the Bundesliga lately and this is an area which Lazio will look to expose. 

Lazio have had a good season in Serie A, but there is no doubt which team is the big favourite in this one. The Bayern players clearly have more experience in these types of matches.

The only time Lazio reached the last eight in the Champions League was the 1999/00 season when they fell to Valencia in the quarter-finals.

Odds to advance
Bayern Munich1/12

Our tip

Bayern Munich to go through. Even though injuries have plagued Bayern Munich, they have enough class to see off a solid Lazio side.

PSG – Real Sociedad

PSGvsReal Sociedad
1.05 millionSquad value in €486.6 million

French giants PSG are chasing their first Champions League title. But the hunt goes on without superstars Lionel Messi and Neymar, who left the club last summer. In the league Luis Enrique, who has been in his post as PSG’s head coach since July 2023, looks to have found a winning formula. However, the club’s owners and supporters crave a Champions League title. And this, so far, proving to be elusive. The closest they have come was in the covid affected season of 2019/20 when they lost to Bayern in the final at an empty Estádio da Luz in Lisbon.

PSG’s progress to the round of 16 hung in the balance and it wasn’t until the last round that the French secured a place in the last sixteen. A 1-1 draw  away to Dortmund was enough to take second place ahead of Milan.

For Real Sociedad, it was much easier, qualifying with two matches to spare. The Basques had to wait unti the last round of fixtures to secure top spot in the group ahead of Inter. In La Liga, “La Real” haven’t really been able to keep up with the top teams and now about grabbing fifth or sixth place in the table, which means European competition next season.

Ahead of the doubleheader that begins in Paris on February 14, PSG have a number of players on the injury list. Presnel Kimpembe, Nuno Mendes, Milan Skriniar and Sergio Rico are unavailable at the time of writing and are unlikely to be available for play in the first match. At Real Sociedad, there are four players who will probably not play against PSG. Arsen Zakharyan, Aihen Muñoz, Carlos Fernández and Ander Barrenetxea all look set to miss out. The situation looks worst for Aihen Muñoz. The 26-year-old defender is out for the entire season due to a serious knee injury.

The betting companies have PSG as a pretty clear favourite here, but Real Sociedad will do everything in their power to disrupt this star-studded French team. 

Odds to advance
Real Sociedad3/4

Our tip

Real Sociedad – Real Sociedad have often proved greater than the sum of their parts in Europe in recent seasons. The opposite has been the case with PSG. Sociedad won their group without losing a game, conceding just two goals in total. PSG, on the other hand, were considered one of the pre-season Champions League favourites, but finished joint second in the group and only advanced on goal difference. PSG will need to live up to the hype if they are to progress.  

Inter – Atletico Madrid

IntervsAtletico Madrid
588.5 millionSquad value in €451.9 million

This is a highly interesting meeting two big clubs from Italy and Spain. Inter, well on their way to taking home a new Scudetto, face Atletico Madrid, whose home record is the best in the whole of La Liga. If you take a look at Transfermarkt’s valuation of the squads, the Italians have a narrow advantage. Inter’s squad is valued at 588.5 million euros, while Atletico’s is just over 450 million euros. In the group stage of the Champions League, Atletico took first place in Group E ahead of Lazio, Feyenoord and Celtic. In total, there were 14 points and 17-6 in goal difference. Inter, on the other hand, had to settle for second place behind Real Sociedad. The only thing that separated the teams was the goal difference.

In Serie A, Inter have been running like a train lately and have not lost a single game since the sixth round when they lost at home to Sassuolo. After that, they have remained unbeaten, which also meant that they climbed to first place in the table. One player who has stood out a lot at Inter this season is Lautaro Martinez. The Argentinian international striker tops Serie A’s scoring charts, but in the Champions League he has only found the net twice to date.

Atletico Madrid, Diego Simeone in charge, had no major problems in booking the ticket to the round of 16 in the Champions League. The group victory came after winning their final three matches.

Inter are held as slight favourites here and considering how they looked in Serie A, the feeling is that they are a bit sharper than Atletico, but if Simeone’s side can get a good result in the San Siro, then the issue becomes clouded for Inter. Atletico very rarely lose at home, the last loss at the Metropolitano Stadium came over a year ago.

In terms of injuries, Atletico are missing: Cesar Azpilicueta, Vitolo andThomas Lemar is doubtful. Inter, at the time of writing, are only missing Juan Cuadrado.

Odds to advance
Atletico Madrid21/20

Our tip

Inter – Inter, who lead Serie A, were not exactly a dream opponent for Atletico Madrid, who had probably hoped for a slightly easier draw.

Diego Simeone is capable of setting his team up to cause any side problems but Inter are a strong side who will probably come through over two legs.

PSV – Dortmund

287.0 millionSquad value in €488.4 million

PSV Eindhoven are playing in their first Champions League round of 16 since 2015/16 while Dortmund are in the last 16 for the second consecutive season. Last season they went out at the hands of Chelsea. Dortmund have only managed to get past the round of 16 once in four attempts since 2017/18.

PSV Eindhoven have greatly  impressed in the Eredivisie, where they are well on their way to taking home the club’s 25th league title. At the time of writing, PSV are more than 10 points clear of Feyenoord. Advancement to the round of 16 came via second place in Group B behind Arsenal but ahead of Lens and Sevilla. 

Although PSV are having a strong domestic season, Dortmund are seen as favourites. They are still undefeated since the turn of the year and with Jadon Sancho back at the club, the attack has been given a further option. In the Champions League group stage, BVB did well, coming first in the group of death ahead of PSG, Milan and Newcastle United. The German runners-up started with a loss away to PSG, but since then were unbeaten and took a total of 11 points.

In the first match, Dortmund will have to do without Felix Nmecha and Julien Duranville – both are expected back at the end of February. However, there are high hopes to bring back Julian Ryerson, Karim Adeyemi and Sebastien Haller.

For PSV Eindhoven, the injury situation looks positive. Malik Tillman and Joey Veerman both look to be ready for the first game at home at Philips Stadium. Otherwise, there are no players on PSV’s injury list at the moment.

Odds to advance

Our tip

Dortmund- PSV have crushed most in their path this season, with a single defeat against Arsenal in the Champions League group stage. Borussia Dortmund surprised by not only qualifying from the tournament’s toughest group, but winning it. The goals should flow in this match as both teams love to attack and produce good football. Unfortunately for PSV, Dortmund look like a stronger and more balanced side.

FC Porto – Arsenal

Looking to bet on the first leg of this tie? Check out our preview.

254.0 millionSquad value in €1.12 billion

The Gunners are involved in the race for the Premier League title, and will have ambitions to have a serious tilt at the Champions League.

In the group stage, Arsenal had no major problems navigating their way through ahead of PSV, Lens and Sevilla. Before the meeting with Porto, the North London outfit are clear favourites. It is not, however, a formality. Porto did well in the group stage, finishing level on points with Barcelona, ​​but the Catalans moved ahead thanks to head-to-head results.

Arsenal look forward to the spring with confidence after coming out of a slump over the festive period. For Porto, as usual, it’s about fighting with rivals Sporting and Benfica in the hunt for the league title. At the time of writing, it is Sporting who top the table ahead of Benfica, with Porto in third place.

Porto, who managed to win the Champions League once in 2003/04 with José Mourinho at the helm, were in the round of 16 last season too. They went out to eventual finalists Inter. For Arsenal, it is the first round of 16 since 2016/17, when the club was last in the Champions League.

On the injury front, Jurrien Timber is missing from Arsenal, while Thomas Partey and Fábio Vieira look set to be back in action after injury. For Porto, only Ivan Marcano is on the injury list at the moment.

Odds to advance

Our tip

Arsenal  – Arsenal have some flaws, and they might not quite have enough to win the Champions League, or for that matter the Premier League.  However the Gunners are a very good side with quality and depth. Martin Ödegaard has developed into a world-class player, while Bukayo Saka is ready to shine on the European stage.

Although Porto made it through a tough group and have the quality to trouble most, Arsenal should advance over two meetings, though it will be tough. 

Napoli – Barcelona

Check out our preview to Napoli vs Barcelona in the first leg of their last 16 tie.

539.8 millionSquad value in €858.0 million

In what has been marketed as the Maradona derby, the Serie A champions face off against the La Liga winners in what should be one of the most competitive matches of the last 16. Barcelona come into the game without playmaker Gavi after narrowly advancing from the group stage as Group D ahead of Porto.

After winning the Scudetto last season for the first time in 30 years, Napoli have struggled to maintain form after coach Luciano Spalletti left. At the time of writing, Napoli are fighting to reach the top four in Serie A and it is debatable whether they will be able to keep the focus up both domestically and in Europe.

Barcelona have shown major flaws in defence and against an offensively skilled Napoli led by Victor Osimhen, it could get a lot worse. If you look at the statistics from La Liga 11 teams have conceded fewer goals than Barca, which speaks volumes about the state of the Catalans’ defence.

In the first match against Napoli, Barcelona will have to manage without a number of leading players. Apart from Gavi, ter Stegen, Sergi Roberto and Raphinha are missing. Marcos Alonso and Íñigo Martinez might be fit in time.

Napoli also have some players on the injury list but not quite as many as Barcelona. Alex Meret and Mathías Olivera are injured but are getting closer to a comeback and hopefully both will be available for the second match. As for Natan Souza, he could be  back at the end of February, but it is extremely unclear if he will be match fit  in time for the return leg.

Odds to advance

Our tip

Napoli – Two teams with bruised confidence meet as Napoli and Barcelona square off in the round of 16. Both teams have not performed at their best, but Barcelona’s defensive problems and the injury to goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen make them clearly vulnerable. Ter Stegen’s outstanding performances hid many of Barcelona’s defensive problems in the past, and now, without him, their vulnerabilities are exposed even more. Napoli have the strength to beat Barca, who are not equipped for a high-scoring match. I

Complete game schedule

The round of 16 iChampions League fixtures are as follows:

13.02. 21:00 FC Copenhagen – Manchester City
13.02. 21:00 RB Leipzig – Real Madrid

14.02. 21:00 Lazio – Bayern
14.02. 21:00 PSG – Real Sociedad

20.02. 21:00 Inter – Atl. Madrid
20.02. 21:00 PSV – Dortmund

21.02. 21:00 FC Porto – Arsenal
21.02. 21:00 Napoli – Barcelona

05.03. 21:00 Bayern – Lazio
05.03. 21:00 Real Sociedad – PSG

06.03. 21:00 Manchester City – FC Copenhagen
06.03. 21:00 Real Madrid – RB Leipzig

12.03. 21:00 Arsenal – FC Porto
12.03. 21:00 Barcelona – Napoli

13.03. 21:00 Atl. Madrid – Inter
13.03. 21:00 Dortmund – PSV

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Chris is a former athlete and a qualified PE teacher. He is a keen football fan, watching many matches at different levels throughout the season, and enjoys following many different sports. With betting and sports sites, he has a keen eye for detail and can to highlight positives and negatives for users. His experience in sport as a performer, teacher, writer and fan allows him to see things from many different perspectives. Editorial Promise