Expected Points (xP) in the Premier League

Which teams have scored more points in terms of expected points (xP) and which have scored fewer points? At Betting.com, we have looked at how the table in the Premier League could have looked after six matches played if the statistics regarding expected points had been correct.

What is xP?

“Expected Points,” abbreviated as “xP,” is a statistical term in football analysis that is used to assess the expected points a footballteam can be expected to score during a certain period of time, often using it over an entire season. Similar to “Expected Goals” (xG), “Expected Points” measures the probability of a team receiving points based on various factors that affect the outcome of a match, including game statistics and performances.

Here is an overview of how “xP” works:

Statistical Model: “xP” is based on a statistical model that takes into account several different variables and factors that affect the outcome of a football match. These variables may include the number of shots on goal, shots off target, corners, free kicks, red and yellow cards, possession and other relevant statistical data.

Calculation of Expected Points: The model uses historical data and mathematical algorithms to calculate how many points a team is expected to score in each match based on the observed variables. For example, a team that has many scoring chances and successful performances may have a higher expected points value.

Understand the results: “xP” provides an expected points summary for each team in a league. This expected score can then be compared to the actual points the team has actually achieved in their matches. If a team has more actual points than expected points, it may indicate overperformance, while fewer actual points than expected points may indicate underperformance.

Applications: “xP” is used by coaches, analysts and sports betting enthusiasts to assess team performance and effectiveness. Additionally, it can be valuable for spotting patterns and trends in team performance and for making strategic decisions, including player substitutions or tactical adjustments.

In short, “xP” is an analytical tool in soccer that helps determine the quantity of expected points a team is expected to score based on their performance and game statistics. It gives a more nuanced picture of a team’s performance than just looking at the league table.

Premier League xP table after six matches

If we look at the Premier League xP table after six matches, it looks like this:

Scroll to see all stats!

Source: understat.com

Top and bottom of table look the same

If you can see from the table, Manchester City are at the top here too. The reigning champions who have a 100% record so far are ahead of Liverpool and Arsenal. At the bottom of the xP table it looks the same as in the real Premier League table. Newcomers Sheffield United and Burnley are last.

Brighton have greatest overperformance

The teams that have overachieved the most in terms of points are Brighton who have overachieved the most so far. After six games played, the Seagulls are in third place with 15 points. Looking at the expected number of goals, the team would have had just over four points less (-4.31 p). Another team that has overachieved is Manchester City. Their 18 points would have been 14-15 points with the xP formula. Liverpool, Tottenham and Fulham are also +3 above the expected number of points.

Chelsea are seriously underperforming

Despite all the expensive new signings, Chelsea continue to stutter in the Premier League. This weekend, the Blues lost at home against Aston Villa. In total, Chelsea have only recorded 5 points, which places them in 14th place in the table. If Mauricio Pochettino’s team had a normal dividend on their scoring chances, the table position would have been clearly higher. According to the xP table, “The Blues” are at almost 11 points against the real fiv e. A difference of almost six points. Against Aston Villa last time, Chelsea had 1.54 in xG without scoring and in the round before, the team’s xG was 1.73 in the 0-0 match against Bournemouth.

How did it look in 2022/23?

How were the points distributed based on xP 2022/23? Let’s take a look:

In the Premier League 2022/23, the top three teams overperformed: Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United. Second-placed Arsenal were more than 11 points short in expected points. Arsenal’s 84 points should, according to the xP table, have been 72-73 points. At the bottom, Southampton, Leeds and Leicester underperformed. Southampton had the worst return on their chances.

Their 25 points would actually have been over 36 if you look at expected points. Chelsea also underperformed significantly. Like this season, the London team is well below the expected points harvest. In 2022/23, they recorded 44 points, which was 8 points worse than what the expected points landed on.

Using xP and xG in betting analysis

By following the Expected Goals (xP) data, we can get a better picture of how a certain team is actually performing. Teams that consistently overperform, that is, their results often exceed their xG data, are likely to suffer a slump sooner or later. On the other hand, underperforming teams will probably improve their results if they maintain their excellent xG data. Because this is actually a more accurate reflection of a team’s ability to create chances. When it comes to betting, there are two ways to use Expected Goals numbers to your advantage.

Short time

Sometimes it can be worth breaking down the team’s form into blocks of four or five games. This often gives a better picture than the table, perhaps players are injured/suspended (or returning after a period of absence), perhaps a failed manager has been replaced.

By collecting xG data match by match, we get an overview of how effectively a team attacks, how well (or poorly) they defend and how much they create going forward. Remember, football teams take many positives from good performances, even if they suffer unlucky losses.

You can even check xG numbers for home and away matches, giving you a better understanding of how teams perform in front of home crowds and away from home. It really cannot be stressed enough that xG data needs to be used in your weekly betting analysis, along with team information and a host of other variables.

Long time

As many of you already know, many bookmakers don’t close markets for winners, top 4 finishes or relegation until quite far into the season. Monitoring long-term xG and xP data provides insight into how well a team is likely to perform in the coming months. It is important to point out that periods of good luck and bad luck usually even out and “better” teams, i.e. those who regularly have superior xG compared to their opponents are a safe bet, while the reverse is true for worse teams.

Summary

Expected Goals (xG) or Expected Points (xP) are statistical measures that can be very helpful when betting. xG is based on goal completions and goal chances in a match while xP shows expected points based on xG.

This is how you can use xG and xP when betting:

1. Assess team performance: By looking at team xG numbers, you can get a better understanding of how effective they are offensively and how solid they are defensively. If a team has high xG numbers but low actual goals, it can indicate bad luck and potential for the team’s future goal production.
2. Compare with actual results: Compare the teams’ actual goals and points with their expected goals and points (xG and xP). If a team has a tendency to exceed their expected values, it may be worth considering when betting on their matches.
3. Long-term strategy: Use xG and xP as part of your long-term betting strategy. It’s important to remember that while xG and xP provide valuable information, there are always other factors to consider, such as injuries, style of play, home/away form, managers and so on.
4. Combine with other data: Supplement xG and xP with other relevant data, such as team news, squad development and historical encounters. The more variables you include in your decision making, the more informed decisions you can make based on xG and xP.
5. Follow trends: Watch team performance over time by monitoring their xG and xP numbers over multiple matches. This can help you spot trends and patterns that can be useful for betting.

In summary, xG and xP can be useful tools for assessing team performance and predicting their future performance. But it’s important to use them as part of a wider betting strategy and to take into account other factors that can affect match results.

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