English Premier League Odds: How to Use Them to Your Advantage?
If you, by any chance, say the words ‘English Premier League odds” near a punter, they will instantly get flashbacks of all the betting slips that flunked because of this iconic competition. No league in the world has caused so much trauma and distress to bettors. But why? Frankly, there is no one answer to this conundrum. However, it mostly boils down to a lack of preparation.
English Premier League odds can be a real gold mine if you know how to pick the right market. Unlike most football competitions, the PL has some distinct rules and characteristics. In order to win on a consistent basis, you have to fully grasp them and know how they impact the overall outcome of your betting slips.
That’s why we’ve decided to take a deep dive into the inner workings of Britain’s foremost league. In this guide, we’ll untangle all the mysteries pertaining to English Premier League odds, along with extensive coverage of the best markets. Trust us, EPL betting is much easier than it looks, especially when you know what you’re doing!
How the League Works: The Key to Understanding English Premier League Odds
The English Premier League consists of 20 teams. Every team plays 38 games over the course of a season, which runs from August through May. Over the course of these nine months, each team plays every other team two times - one home fixture and one away fixture. Three points are awarded for each win, whilst both teams get awarded one point if the match ends in a draw. In May, the team with the most points wins the league. If two clubs have an equal number of points, the winner is decided by goal difference (GD) - the correlation between goals scored (GS) and goals conceded (GC).
European Qualification: An Underrated Odds Factor
While the obvious goal is to win the league, English Premier League odds are mostly affected by something else - the goal of qualifying for European competitions. The top three teams automatically earn a spot in the Champions League group stage, while the fourth-placed squad gets a spot in the qualifying rounds. A fifth-place finish results in a spot in the Europa League group stage, while winners of the Carabao Cup (aka the League Cup) and the FA Cup get the same reward.
When looking at English Premier League odds, it’s important to know that teams are often aware that they can’t win the PL, so they try to solidify a top-4 finish, just to be able to participate in the Champions League. In the latter stages of the season, English Premier League odds are often greatly affected by these efforts.
Relegation: How Survival Dictates English Premier League Odds
Even though most of the attention is reserved for the best teams of the league, English Premier League odds are also impacted by whether a team is fighting to stay up or not. In the PL, the bottom three teams are relegated to the Championship (the second tier of the EFL). They are, in turn, replaced by the top two teams in the Championship, as the winner of the Play-Offs, a mini-tournament between teams that placed 3rd to 6th.
You should pay attention to teams who are in the relegation zone or slightly above. Even though English Premier League Odds for them winning are high, it’s wise to ‘jump’ on them if a team needs three points (or just one, in some cases) in order to stay up. That’s why the best period to bet on English Premier League odds is near the end of the Premier League season.
A good way to prepare for the next season is to assess the strength of the newly-promoted teams. By knowing their strengths and weaknesses, you can effectively know which English Premier League odds to aim for.
A Blast from the Past: How Historical Data Affects English Premier League Odds?
Not many oddsmakers will admit to this, but the historical success of a team plays a major role in determining English Premier League odds, especially when it comes to futures, such as top 4 finish, top 6 finish, bottom 3 finish, etc. This happens because it’s important for a club to have a winning culture.
The Premiership was introduced in 1992, featuring 24 teams. It became immediately clear that the level of competition was subpar, and the team count was cut down to just 20 teams. In these 28 years of the league’s existence, we’ve noticed that English Premier League odds are increasingly affected by a team’s number of titles, which basically means that the most successful teams are expected to win again. This is true, as only six squads have taken home the title:
● Manchester United - 13 times
● Chelsea - 4
● Arsenal 3
● Manchester City - 4
● Leicester City - 1
● Blackburn Rovers - 1
You might notice that Leicester and Blackburn are obvious outliers, as they weren’t expected to win in their respective campaigns. English Premier League odds rarely predict such outcomes, so it’s best to have such surprising results in mind. Leicester winning the league was valued at 5000/1, the highest odds ever paid out in the history of English football.
English Premier League Odds: The Nitty Gritty
There are dozens of markets for all fixtures, each with their own distinct English Premier League odds. The most-coveted include:
● Match result (1x2). You’re predicting the result of a game - win, draw, or loss, at the end of 90+ plus injury time.
● Over/under goals. Oddsmakers select a number, usually decimal such as 3.5 or 4.5, and you have to guess whether the goal count will be over or under that margin.
● Handicap. The stronger team is handicapped because of its strength, meaning that it’s not enough for them to win - they have to win by a certain number of goals.
Who Will Win the Title? - English Premier League Odds for Futures
Aside from taking punts on a single match, you can wager money on who will bring home the cup at the end of the season. Over the course of the season, English Premier League odds for this market are known to move, with the main factor being the team’s performance. If Manchester City were the favorite to win before the season, but end up losing five games in a row, the odds will inevitably go up. You get the idea.
Other English Premier League Odds You Can Focus On
Aside from the basic English Premier League Betting Odds, you can also bet on smaller details pertaining to the game, such as who will score the first goal or if a team will have a player be given a red card. Whether you’re using a betting calculator or not, football predictions for these markets are scarce because there is no betting algorithm that can accurately determine whether and when these things will happen. That’s why you need to be careful when filling up an accumulator bet with such markets.
To be able to fully utilize the best English Premier League odds, you need to look beyond the surface statistics and pay attention to some of the finer details. Our team at Betting.com analyzed each of the last 27 PL seasons, just to find some lesser-known indicators that might help you score that lucrative winning slip. Here’s what you have to pay attention to:
● Keep track of your betting stats. Whilst this is mostly unrelated to the games themselves, it’s essential that you keep track of your performance. Input every bet you place, with or without a particular bookmaker bonus. Track your performance both with and without betting tips.
● Look for injury-prone players. This is especially important for futures, but rarely can you see a tipster paying attention to this. If a strong team has injury-prone defenders or strikers, that’s a red flag and you should think twice about taking the plunge. If you have a bookmaker offer at your disposal, then you can take the risk.
● Determine how a new transfer fits. Whenever a big name arrives to a Premier League team, the hype is out of this world. However, be wary of lucrative signings. Watch the player’s highlights and scouting videos from his previous team and cross-reference it with the Premier League squad’s tactics. You can also consider the coach as a factor. Is he willing to adapt to the player or will he force the player to adhere to the system?
● Scout the youth squad, too. If a team has hit a slump and your tips have disappointed you, you can prepare for the rest of the season by scouting their U-18 and U-23 teams. In case the team continues doing badly, the coach will attempt to insert the youngsters just to see what happens. Talented young squad players can make an impact, which puts you in a great position if you’ve placed bets on futures. However, be wary of potential flops, as it’s impossible to correctly predict a player’s performance at the next level