Undisputed UFC Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
Date: Sat, Apr 13
Main Card Time: 11 PM ET
Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
How to Watch Live: Order on UFC Fight Pass
Result: Pereira RD 1 TKO
UFC 300 lived up to the hype. Maybe it was the grandeur of the event, the style of the matchups, or… the $300K Performance Bonuses this time around, but nevertheless, the fighters put on. We went 5/8 with our picks. (It would have been 6/8, but someone forgot to add their prediction to the Holms-Harrison fight. Way to go, Derek.)
Let’s sum up the highlights. Harrison came in and proved she belongs in the UFC, against a legend of the sport. Aljamain did what Aljamain does, control the fight no matter how boring that may look to the casual… a win is a win. Jiri showed there’s something to this Samurai stuff and walked down his opponent. It was a tough fight, but Charles Oliveira? A +200 underdog? Pshh, take that every time… and we did. Holloway made the BMF title actually mean something, putting Gaethje out cold in a shootout with one second left in the fifth round. Weili proved she’s in a different realm, even from her own countrywomen. Then Periera took a stray to the cubes, told the ref to chill, and iced Hill in the first. Dana White cooked this weekend. Me, well, I was so confident I parlayed ALL these picks and took an L… so close, yet so far away. Don’t get greedy, kids. Bet Responsibly.
Las Vegas, NV
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Tale of the Tape
| (LHW) 205 lbs | (LHW – C) Alex Periera | (LHW) Jamahal Hill |
| Age | 34 | 26 |
| Height | 6’4″ | 6’4″ |
| Reach | 79″ | 79″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Country | Brazil | USA |
| UFC Official Record | 9-2-0 | 12-1-0 (1NC) |
| KO Rate | 88% | 64% |
| ML Odds* | -135 | +114 |
Storylines & Moneylines
Alex Periera
Alex Pereira, the reigning UFC Light Heavyweight champion, is gearing up for his first title defense against former champion Jamahal Hill at UFC 300. Pereira, who previously clinched the middleweight title against MW GOAT candidate Israel Adesanya, made history by becoming the ninth UFC fighter to win titles in two different divisions. His remarkable victory over Jiří Procházka to secure the light heavyweight title highlighted his exceptional striking skills and knockout power, crowing the newest Champ Champ. Ask Sean, ask Izi, ask Jiri. Pereira is the truth. One would assume a kickboxing champion comes into the UFC that he’d get rag-dolled in the cage. However, Pereira seems to be adjusting quite well to the ground game, or lack thereof, seeing how he boasts a 70% Takedown defense rate and an average of less than .38 minutes on the ground per 15 minutes in 7 UFC bouts. The UFC roster has allowed this man to feast, and he hasn’t left too many crumbs on his plate.
Jamahal Hill
Hill started his MMA career in 2017, and he quickly showcased his skills, leading to a successful appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, where he secured a UFC contract. Hill would go on to win the UFC Light Heavy title in a UD over Glover Teixeira at UFC 283, etching history as the first Dana White’s Contender Series alum to win a UFC title. Unfortunately, Hill vacated the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship due to a ruptured Achilles tendon he suffered while playing basketball during UFC International Fight Week of 2023. That being said, in the fight world, one could very much argue Hill is the A-side, and the “Lineal” light heavy champion, if the UFC cared about those. Hill is an exceptional martial artist, particularly in the stand-up game, himself averaging a 73% takedown defense and a masterful 0 average minutes on the ground per 15 minutes throughout his career, with an aggressive 7.31 strikes lander per minute.
Prediction
Both fighters, known for their striking, will likely keep the fight standing, meaning composure, pace, accuracy, and power will most likely decide the bout. Pereira, throughout both his kickboxing and MMA career, has dominated. His tall upright guard keeps his opponents’ eyes high and legs vulnerable. Mix that, ungodly power, and a surprising 70% takedown defense rate, it seems safe to say Pereira has found his niche in MMA. Hill, never having spent time on the ground in his fights and delivering 7.31 strikes per minute, matches up fairly well against Pereira’s stand-up game. He’ll be busy, and in those exchanges is its best bet to find Alex’s chin. However, in the Glover fight, Hall showed moments of fatigue early, which allowed Glover to work. He cannot give Pereira those same opportunities, or it’ll be a short night. This fight is expected to be a tactical stand-up war, with the more efficient striker taking advantage. Pereira has a button that can be pushed and has long shown he can push anyone’s button regardless of whether Hill has tasted a canvas or not. I expect a KO/TKO in Under 3.5, leaning toward Pereira.
Our Pick
Pereira by KO/TKO/DEC (+110)
Different bookies see fights differently. Browse our P4P Best Sportsbook for UFC Betting to find your ideal MMA Bookie on the premier fights of the UFC 300 Main Card.
- Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan: An all-Chinese clash for the Women’s Strawweight Championship, with Zhang Weili looking to defend her title against Yan Xiaonan. This fight highlights the depth of talent in the women’s strawweight division and the rising MMA scene in China.
- Best Value: Zhang Weili To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+140) Weili DEC R2
- Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway: A battle that’s expected to be an all-out war, with Gaethje’s “BMF” belt on the line. Max Holloway moves up to 155 pounds to challenge “The Highlight” in what’s anticipated to be a candidate for UFC Fight of the Night.
- Best Value: Justin Gaethje To Win By Decision (+240) LOST
- Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage: Rising middleweight star Bo Nickal seeks to continue his ascent up the ranks against Cody Brundage. Nickal’s wrestling pedigree and aggressive style make this a must-watch for fans eager to see the next generation of MMA talent.
- Best Value: Bo Nickal To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (+130) WINNER | Bo Nickal to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+850)
- Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan: A lightweight bout with a title shot potentially at stake. Former champion Oliveira faces rising star Tsarukyan in a bout that could easily steal the show. Oliveira was at one point in the P4P #1 conversation, and the current number one contender. His being underdogged to anyone is a crime. Rob the bank.
- BEST VALUE: Charles Oliveira ML (+200) WINNER
- Jiří Procházka vs. Aleksandar Rakić: A high-level light heavyweight clash, with both fighters looking to establish themselves as the next title challenger. Procházka aims to bounce back from a loss, while Rakić seeks to make his mark after a period of inactivity. If you stay ready, you don’t have to get ready.
- Best Value: Jiří Procházka ML (+114) WINNER
- Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling: Sterling makes a return to featherweight to face Calvin Kattar, in a bout that could have significant implications for the featherweight rankings.
- Best Value: Aljamain Sterling (-142) WINNER
- Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison: Two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo, Kayla Harrison makes her UFC debut against women’s combat sports legend Holly Holm. A win for either could mean a fast track to title contention.
- Result: Kayla Harrison Submission R2
