UFC 295: PROCHÁZKA vs. PEREIRA

• UFC Undisputed Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
• Date: Sat, November 11 | Main Card Time: 11 PM ET
• Location: Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY
• How to watch live: Order on UFC Fight Pass

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Featured Tales of the Tape 

Moneylines & Storylines

Moneylines

Storylines

Jiří Procházka (+124)

Procházka, walking into the octagon with a record of 29-3-1, may be new to the UFC, but he’s no amateur to the sport. He’s on 13 win-streak and 23 of of his 25 KOs have come in the first round. He’s on a meteoric rise in the UFC, walking through contender Dominic Reyes and submitting Jiu Justu legend Glover Teixeira in a tough 5-rounder. He has an unorthodox, explosive style. His hands hang very low, but his striking is both precise and diverse.

Alex Pereira (-148)

Speaking of meteoric rises, few have seen the ascent that Pereira has. After topping off his rivalry with Adensanya with a loss (although a 3-1 aggregate)  he’d go on to win a tough 5-round bout against Jan Błachowicz at UFC 291. Alex Pereira made his transition to MMA a little late, after a fas-tracked Middleweight run and one light-heavy win, he now already finds himself fighting for the UFC Light Heavyweight title against a man on just as fast of track as him. Rightfully so, he’s met every challenge his way and looked strong doing so, even his loss (and almost loss to Jan).

Sergei Pavlovich (+110)

Refered to as “probably the most dangerous man in the UFC” by none other than his opponent, Pavlovich is the the boogieman of the heavyweight class. He was originally slated as the backup for the Jones’ fight, and will have the advantage of a full fight camp. He’s long had his eye on a championship opportunity, and after a 6-fight win streak -including huge wins against Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa- and 15 of 15 knockouts coming in the first, the Russian powerhouse finds himself knocking on the door.

Tom Aspinall (-130)

Aspinall, former Pro Boxer and BJJ Black belt, embodyies adaptability. There aren’t many men on earth with his size and hand speed, let alone with 4oz gloves on. He steps in on two weeks’ notice. His recent record is a canvas of triumph, going 6-1 with a tapestry of 6 finishes, the lone loss—a freak accident in a headliner bout against Blades in July ’22. This stage is set for Aspinall to prove he’s the best boxer in the heavyweight class and worthy of an undisputed title bout.

Prediction

The UFC, and sports betting, is unpredictable, and there are no guarantees. That being said,  here is my prediction and personal GUARANTEE (Charles Barkley). 

Porcházka is a vicious striker but leaves his hands down by his waists. Sure, his strikes come at odd angles that often find their mark on their opponent, but he too is very touchable. That being said, Pereira has a death touch in that left hook and has had no trouble finding its mark in all of his victories.

Verdict: Periera | KO/TKO

Sergei Pavlovich hits like a truck. Tom Aspinall hits like 3 Ford Focuses. It will legitimately only take one for Sergei to strap the interim title to waist. However, he’s stepping in against stylistically his toughest challenge yet. An agile, patient boxer turned mixed martial artist who wont stay in front of him, or be uncomfortable working off his back. The KO/TKO is a sure bet, which way a little less sure. I like to think skills pay bills, and technique, speed, and timing beat overwhelming power.

Verdict: Tom Aspinall KO/TKO

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