Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo

• Undisputed Super Middleweight Championship: WBO, WBC, IBF, WBA
• Date: Saturday, Sept. 30
• Main Card Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT / 2 a.m. CET
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

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Tale of the Tape 

* Odds provided are accurate as of 27 Sep 23

Storylines & Moneylines

Canelo being Canelo

With 18 years and 23 world titles in the professional fight game, Canelo’s gameplan should consist of being Canelo. His experience, technical ability, and power are Upper Room-Hall of Fame certified. He’s known for his systematic approach, assessing his opponent in the first few rounds, albeit leaving them up for grabs to a busier opponent. Yet, often by the 5th or 6th, he turns it on, blending his elusiveness with the Mexican-style pace, overwhelming his opponents and looking sharp doing it. 

Canelo’s path to the KO will be to counter lazier jabs with murderous intent, similar to how he destroyed Billy Joe Saunders’ face. Charlo tends not to change levels when he goes to the body, leaving him particularly vulnerable to a hard counter. Expect Canelo to try to capitalize on that with counter-haymakers to both levels before trying to close it out in the final rounds. 

Charlo Cashing The Upset

Almost two years out of the ring since his dogfight against Castano and moving up two weight classes –despite being the bigger fighter–Jermell’s got the odds, figuratively and literally, stacked against him. To secure the belts –and the for-life bag–he’ll need to come out working and establish his left hand to take the first few rounds. Canelo is notoriously a slow starter, usually taking his time to download his opponent’s information.  A high, disciplined work rate from the bell will secure him the first third of the fight.

The key to success against Canelo as the longer fighter, ala Dmetri Bivol, is to control the outside and prevent Canelo from planting his feet with a probing left hand and combination punching. Bivol pushed off on the end of punches, keeping front-foot-heavy Canelo off balance, obstructing his base, and neutralizing his devastating counters. A little tidbit  I’m positive Charlo’s trainer, Derrick James, has picked up on. (if he hasn’t, and Team Charlo is reading this, you’re welcome.)

Save a knockout-of-the-decade candidacy, a decision or draw will require Charlo to fight a very disciplined fight… for 12 rounds. It’s not impossible, especially for a fighter of his pedigree. However, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face; that Lion’s Only mentality may lead to Charlo throwing away the game plan and scrapping it out.  

Moneylines

Canelo is the heavy favorite at -400, meaning you’d have to put down $400 to walk away with $100 profit. Canelo has seen a few decisions as of late, so the odds are a little better, and the task not too daunting for a (T)KO paying $230 per $100 stake. 

The flip side is if Jermell pulls the upset, +230  is always fantastic. However, unless Jermell finds a perfect fight, his best chance to win is via stoppage paying out $900 to your $100 Bet! High Risk – High Reward. 

A Draw, while feasible, is very unlikely considering the potential super-fight with Crawford and the restless stables of contenders awaiting both fighters.

My Pick

Betting on boxing can be reasonably straightforward, but there’s always room for an upset at this level. If Charlo (+300) fails to establish his jab, the fight’s gift-wrapped for Alvarez (-400) bettors. Jermell’s heart and that dawg in him may give the “draw” (+1800) hopefuls a little rush, but… you know, boxing… whatever storyline pays better, and a Canelo-Crawford makes a bit more “cents” than a Canelo-Charlo II. +300 Decision or +900 Stoppage odds for a boxer of Charlo’s caliber is borderline disrespectful. However, with his size and power, for the savvy bettor, it’s incredibly tempting no matter who he’s up against. Plus, who doesn’t want to witness history written? Although, for me, at +230, Canelo by Stoppage feels the fiscally safer sweat. 

Verdict: My money’s on Canelo Alvarez ML (-400). Boxing bookies tend to be conservative with promotions and bonuses, so If I’m feeling froggy,  I’ll go as far as to bet Canelo | TKO/KO | Rounds 9-12, but that’s just me.

The Sleeper: Canelo Alvarez to Win and Over 1.5 Knockdowns at +650. Canelo has the necessary tools to put Charlo on a knee. But Charlo has the necessary dawg in ‘em to get up each time and see through to the bell or towel. 

You can pick a sleeper yourself, and find your ideal Boxing Bookie!

BetRivers

(5/5)

DraftKings

(5/5)

Caesars

(4.9/5)

BetMGM

(4.8/5)