UFC 294: MAKHACHEV vs. VOLKANOVSKI II

• UFC Undisputed Lightweight Championship Bout
• Date: October 21, 2023 | Main Card Time: 10 P.M EST
• Location: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE
• How to watch live: Order on UFC Fight Pass

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Featured Tales of the Tape 

* Odds provided by Draft Kings | Accurate as of 10 Oct 23

Odds and Bits

Numbers / Odds*

Narratives 

Islam Makhachev (-345) Spinning The Block

Islam seems to be cut from the same fabric as Khabib. He mauls his opponents, averaging 3.25 Takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC and 4 in their last matchup with Volk. His ability to control his opponents on the ground and apply pressure is something of a claustrophobe’s worst nightmare. Although he is rather conservative on his feet, he’s not afraid to trade, things Volk learned all too well in their first bout at UFC 284. He scored two solid knockdowns on Alex and accrued over 5 minutes of ground control, bagging him rounds 1, 2, and 4 and a tough (unnecessarily controversial) Unanimous Decision. One can only imagine, that he’ll rinse and repeat what he did best, and look to tighten up the stand-up game this time around. 

Alexander Volkanovski (+185)  Wants His Lick Back

Volkanovski, on the other hand, put that “dawg” in him on full display. The future Hall of Famer leveled the playing field with two knockdowns of his own, one coming in the dying seconds of the last round of their last encounter. He remained competitive the entire fight, won round 3, and dominated the 5th, ending the fight in dominant position and hailing down vicious ground and pound until the final bell. Alexander is in rarefied air, in the MMA world. His takedown defense was solid, his composure under pressure was Mayweather-esque, and his gas tank was otherworldly, seemingly improving with each round that passed. 

Khamzat Chimaev (-270) Keelin’ Everybody

Khazmat run in the UFC is nothing short of incredible. McGregor, O’Malley level hype –and UFC support–  and so far, so justified. He’s ran through just about every opponent to stand across from him in record times and unprecedented fashions. That is until his first true test, UFC 273, against elite competition, in (formerly) #2 Ranked Gilbert Burns. Khamzat’s knee touched the canvas following a mean overhand, but he demonstrated that Dagestani spirit by finishing the round with a takedown. He took his first decision and, with another win, would be discussions for a title shot. However, his next test is a bit of a step up, as in one of the greatest Welterweight Champions of All Time. 

Kamaru Usman (+220) Derailing the Hypetrain

Former UFC Welterweight Champion, 2021 Fighter of the Year, second in consecutive wins (15), and third most WW title fight wins (6) in UFC History, is arguably one of the greatest welterweights to step into the cage. Coming off two tough losses to Leon Edwards, Usman is still the man to beat, Leon Edwards, and only Leon Edwards, has been able to crack that puzzle in the last decade. The Nigerian Nightmare is 15-2 in the UFC, and if it wasn’t for Leon’s Headshot, would be on pace to be not one of, but The Greatest Welterweight of All Time. 

Prediction

The UFC, and sports betting, is unpredictable, and there are no guarantees. That being said,  here is my prediction and personal GUARANTEE (Charles Barkley). 

Alexander Volkanovski kept it competitive in the last bout. He took the fight on 11 days’ notice, but I believe the gameplan switch will affect Makhachev more than Volk. 

Verdict: Alexander Volkanovski | Decision (+185). 

Khamzat’s on a tear, but I expect Usman to be aggressive, despite being the smaller man. Both men are relatively new to the division, and the extra weight takes time to acclimate too, so save a KO of the Year, I see the better gas tank winning. Usman’s been in more dogfights and deeper waters. 

Verdict: Free Money. Kamaru Usman Moneyline (+220)

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