What Are Dropping Odds?
Dropping odds indicates a change in probabilites originally calculated by the sportsbook.
A dropping odds example
A sportsbook has calculated the odds for the Dallas Mavericks to win against the Los Angeles Lakers at -115. These odds were published on Monday. Friday comes and there’s rumours that LeBron James might miss out the game on Saturday due to an injury. Sportsbooks calculate that it affects the probability of Dallas winning the match positively, and they’ll change the odds to -130.
Simple as that. The odds are now dropping for the Dallas Mavericks to win the match, but is that justified? Well, maybe in that scenario because LeBron James is one of the greatest basketball players to ever play the game.
However, every day there are situations like this where the market reacts to new information, but even the bookies cannot predict the future. Sure, they do have the tools and statistics to replicate probabilities as accurately as possible, but at the end of the day, they are still probabilities.
How important is LeBron James for the Lakers? Do the Kansas City Chiefs and their high powered offense absolutely need Patrick Mahomes to win games? Are the Edmonton Oilers still capable of winning games without Connor McDavid & Leon Draisaitl?
There are a couple of ways to make money on dropping odds – keep reading, we’ll go over the strategy next!
Dropping Odds Strategy
Strategy that revolves around dropping odds is actually one of the easiest concepts to understand in sports betting. There’s no magic behind it, and you don’t have to be a math wizard to make profitable bets by using this strategy.
Please note that the dropping odds strategy isn’t usually a good idea if that’s the only thing you’re trying to accumulate profits from. Consider this “good-to-know” type of concept, which you can use to your advantage from time to time. Sports betting in general is a game of margins, where every single percentage matters in the long run.
Here are the two most profitable strategies of how to utilize dropping odds:
Lazy Bookies
With “lazy bookies” we’re referring to smaller betting sites that don’t necessarily have the tools and resources to react quick enough.
The goal here is very simple: when you notice odds dropping from a match you’ve been following, check which sportsbooks haven’t reacted and still have the “old” odds on their site. You don’t have to calculate the probabilities yourself, because when the big betting sites are lowering their odds, they are pretty much right every time with their predictions. They use extremely sophisticated models to figure out the most accurate probabilities on any given match.
Using this method is proven to be the most successful way of utilizing dropping odds, but it’s not the only available option.
Knowledge Is Power
With all the data available in the world, bookies still make mistakes from time to time. Sometimes the decisions to correct odds are being affected by the media, and people who rush to place their bets for whatever reason.
If you have a sudden spike of people flooding in and placing huge bets for the favourite to win, this will usually lead to those odds dropping. This doesn’t mean that the majority of people are right, as there are far more recreational sports bettors than there are professionals.
Things like starting quarterback getting injured before the match is always going to cause dropping of odds for the opposing team. The question here is: How much are those odds dropping? Did they drop too much, making the bet valuable?
It’s obvious that the probability of that team winning decreases significantly, but are the odds representing that correctly? There are models out there that can predict this, but there’s really no way for anyone to know exactly how much this is going to affect the overall performance for that team. If you know that your team still has the depth to be competitive with the backup QB, here’s your place to take advantage of it.
Especially NFL odds and MLB odds are very sensitive for odds movement, as we all know, the starting QB / pitcher can make or break a team’s overall performance.
One thing to keep in mind is that you can take advantage of odds movements by not following that particular sport, but usually the more you understand the sport, the better you’ll become at spotting false movements and high / low prices.
How To Wager, Leveraging Our Dropping Odds Tracking Tool?
Tracking dropping odds is impossible if you don’t use any kind of tools to do that. Betting.com offers a fully automated tracking tool, which allows you to follow odds movement with multiple bookies at the same time. Odds comparison and being quick on your feet is the key to success.
It’s super easy to use, and you don’t have to do any manual labour to get it working. Simply select the sports & matches you’re interested in, and compare how the odds have moved recently. The site updates in minutes, so you’re always relying on the latest information.
In order to execute this tactic effectively, you will need accounts on several different sportsbooks.
Frequently Asked Questions
When odds are dropping, it usually means that the sportsbook is re-calculating the initial odds to better reflect the probabilities of the outcome.
There are multiple methods of taking advantage of dropping odds. The most popular method is finding odds that are dropping, and placing bets on smaller bookmakers that still haven’t fixed their odds.
Yes! Betting.com offers a free-to use tool for tracking odds movement across hundreds of markets. Taking advantage of dropping odds you need to be quick on your feet, hence our data feed is updating within minutes whenever something changes.
Yes and no. You can definitely find good value and increase your ROI, but simply just by betting on dropping odds, you most likely won't make a living out of it. This system is good to compliment your other betting activities, not so much if you’re only targeting dropping odds.
The more you know about the sport you’re betting on, the more profitable it becomes. You still can be profitable on other sports as well, but we highly recommend you to focus on those that you follow and have gained knowledge on.
Simon Flynn is a sports bettor with over 10 years experience in building profitable sports trading systems. Specializing in football (the type where players use their feet), he dreams of hitting that elusive 10-game accumulator one day.
