How Do We Generate Our NFL Expert Picks?
Our picks are generated via three key ingredients, starting with our NFL experts breaking down the key storylines, tips and picks ahead of each weekend’s action. The betting.com NFL coverage also benefits from experienced handicappers and AI-driven insights.
What Is The NFL Consensus?
Prior to jumping into the betting action, the NFL Consensus can be a helpful resource to guide or support your decision-making process. When assessing a particular matchup, the Consensus provides a breakdown of where the betting public are placing their wagers.
Take a big matchup like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers. The NFL Consensus might reveal that 55% of the public bets have gone to Packers +3.5 and only 45% have been placed on Buccaneers -3.5. Equally, if the over/under points total is 51.5, the data might show that 60% of public bets (to date) have picked the over.
Moneyline NFL Picks
The moneyline is the simplest NFL betting option, where you are simply picking which team will win the game. The margin of victory is not a factor here.
NFL Picks Against The Spread
When betting against the spread, it is all about the margin of victory/defeat. The oddsmakers will set a line that reflects the difference in quality and form between the two teams. As an example, the high-flying Chiefs might be expected to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points. In that case, the line would be set at 9, giving you the choice of Chiefs -9 or Jaguars +9. If you take the Jaguars, they do not have to win – they just have to lose by less than nine points.
Best NFL Picks For The Regular Season
- AFC North: Like last season, this should be a highly competitive division. While question marks remain over Lamar Jackson as a playoff performer, the Baltimore Ravens’ run-heavy offense has fared well in the regular season. Defensively, the secondary is terrific but offseason exits have depleted the pass rush. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers are counting on at least one more top-tier season from Roethlisberger. Much depends on rookie running back Najee Harris to make an immediate splash, but this version of the Steelers looks shakier along the offensive line. The door is open for the Cleveland Browns to build off last season’s progress behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in their dominant running game. Odell Beckham Jr. is back after his ACL injury and a busy summer retooling the defense should pay off. Baker Mayfield’s consistency is perhaps the biggest cause for concern in Cleveland, but he was solid last year. A healthy Joe Burrow is a welcome sight for the Cincinnati Bengals – and he will find a bolstered offensive line and a strengthened receiving corps on his return. In another division, the Bengals might cause more of a stir, but expect an uphill battle in a stacked AFC North.The pick: Browns (+165)
- AFC East: With Tom Brady no longer ruling the roost, the AFC East had a welcome shake-up last season as the Buffalo Bills seized their chance, boosted by Josh Allen’s breakout year. The Bills should again be the cream of the crop here – there is no reason to think that their creative, pass-first offense will take a step back nor that their solid defense will falter. The New England Patriotsappear to be Buffalo’s likeliest challengers for top spot after a rare spending spree this summer. The biggest question for Bill Belichick is if/when rookie quarterback Mac Jones surpasses Cam Newton for the starting job. Expect New England’s defense to be among the NFL’s best this year. The Miami Dolphins were a pleasant surprise last season, but Tua Tagovailoa has plenty still to prove in his second year. A small step back feels on the cards. Despite the excitement around rookie quarterback Zach Wilson, the New York Jets will be hard pressed to avoid bottom spot in the division under new head coach Robert Saleh. The pick: Bills (-150)
- AFC East: For various reasons, this division will be in the spotlight this year. The Tennessee Titanslook well placed to at least match last season’s strong 11-win effort, with Julio Jones arriving to add another dimension to the offense, while opening up more running lanes for back-to-back rushing champion Derrick Henry. Defensively, signing Bud Dupree should mitigate the impact of other exits on that side of the ball. The Indianapolis Colts have faced a rocky start to the Carson Wentz era, with their new quarterback trying to bounce back from a preseason foot injury. Still, a well-balanced roster and the explosive Jonathan Taylor should put the Colts in the playoff race. The prospects are gloomier for the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. Deshaun Watson’s future remains unclear while Trevor Lawrence has a big task ahead of him to get the Jaguars back on track. The pick: Titans (-120)
- AFC West: For the Kansas City Chiefs, the nature of their Super Bowl loss should provide all the motivation needed for another deep playoff run. The offense will flow through familiar faces – Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill – but meaningful upgrades to the offensive line should yield even more eye-catching numbers as well as a breakout year for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Expect Mahomes, in particular, to be locked in from day one. Both the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos are popular picks for bounce-back seasons. But it is easier to see a path for the Chargers, with the dynamic Justin Herbert running the show and Austin Ekeler poised for a monster year if he can stay healthy. In Denver, newcomer Teddy Bridgewater has an underrated group of pass-catchers to work with, backed by elite defensive playmakers, but the Broncos have failed to win more than seven games since 2016. The Las Vegas Raiders have postseason aspirations too, but a revamped defense will need to gel quickly if they are to keep pace in this division. The pick: Chiefs (-280)AFC Wildcards: Chargers, Ravens, Patriots
- NFC North: After some nervy moments in the Aaron Rodgers saga, the Green Bay Packers appear to have steadied the ship. Now they can focus on avenging back-to-back NFC Championship Game losses. A new contract for Aaron Jones was a key offseason move while Rodgers remains head and shoulders above the rest of the NFC North quarterbacks. After a defensive coordinator change this summer, keep an eye on what that means for an already solid Green Bay defense. The best version of the Minnesota Vikings could give the Packers a run for their money, with the trio of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen capable of 30+ points week in, week out as long as Kirk Cousins limits the turnovers. The Vikings are primed for a stingier defensive showing this season too, especially if summer signing Patrick Peterson thrives with a change of scenery. Incremental progress is probably the most realistic target for both the Chicago Bears, who are likely to start rookie Justin Fields at quarterback at some point this year, and Detroit Lions, who traded Matt Stafford during the offseason and are entering a rebuild. If a talented Chicago defense plays lights out, they could yet end up on the fringes of the playoff pack. The pick: Packers (-150)
- NFC East: Once again, the teams in this division look closely matched on paper. The Dallas Cowboys may have the highest ceiling, with Dak Prescott returning to lead a potent offense and Ezekiel Elliott expected to have a bigger impact behind a healthy offensive line, but it is fair to wonder whether the Dallas defense can consistently keep up their end of the bargain. The Washington Soccer Team are the latest to sample the Ryan Fitzpatrick experience – and their offense could be surprisingly prolific if he builds a quick connection with Terry McLaurin. Antonio Gibson is a prime 2021 breakout candidate. But it is the Washington defense that makes top spot in the NFC East a real possibility, with Chase Young one of several explosive playmakers. Jalen Hurts’ first full year as a starter has the Philadelphia Eagles dreaming big, but health and depth concerns on both sides of the ball are lingering. Unless rookie DeVonta Smith terrorizes secondaries right out of the gate, the Eagles could struggle to regularly score 25+ points. With Saquon Barkley back from his ACL injury, the New York Giants have the ingredients to be in the playoff conversation. This looks like being a make-or-break season for quarterback Daniel Jones – and the signing of Kenny Golladay should give the Giants more punch, especially in the red zone. The pick: Washington (+260)
- NFC South: After years of sitting atop of the AFC East, Brady is seemingly establishing a similar grip on the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the defending Super Bowl champions, bring back their 2020/21 core for their repeat quest and should be in sync much quicker after last season’s shared experiences. Even if Brady and company hold back their best form for the playoffs, a loaded receiving corps and a physical defense should add up to 13+ wins. Drew Brees’ retirement kick-starts a new era for the New Orleans Saints, but resist the urge to write them off. Alvin Kamara’s reliable do-it-all skill set will smooth the transition while Jameis Winston, set to take over at quarterback, has the arm strength to throw downfield far more than Brees did in recent years. A gritty defense should help keep the Saints in the postseason picture. Christian McCaffrey’s return brings optimism for the Carolina Panthers, but new quarterback Sam Darnold must prove that he has learned from his turnover-prone spell in New York. The Atlanta Falcons are moving on from Julio Jones and should get some big games from rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, but defensive frailties are still glaring. The pick: Buccaneers (-200)
- NFC West: The NFL’s most competitive division went to a whole new level this summer after the Los Angeles Rams landed Stafford in a blockbuster trade, further solidifying their “all-in” approach. A bruising defense remains the Rams’ backbone, but Stafford’s rocket arm opens up the playbook for Sean McVay. Cam Akers’ season-ending injury is a setback for the running game, however. The Arizona Cardinals made their own big splash by landing J.J. Watt to spice up their pass rush and, with limited running back depth, the stage is set for Kyler Murray to take another mini-leap this year with his speed and mobility. The Seattle Seahawks had some high-stress moments this summer with Russell Wilson’s future at times uncertain, but offensive line investments helped to ease the tension – and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron could take Wilson’s game to the next level. There are flaws on this Seahawks roster (including the pass rush) but there is no denying the star power, from DK Metcalf and Chris Carson to Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams. The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a nightmare season but should jump straight back into the playoff conversation, whether it is Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Trey Lance starting at quarterback. A fierce defensive line and an innovative running game are San Francisco trademarks, but George Kittle – when healthy – remains their number one difference-maker. The pick: Rams (-200)
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
Mahomes, Rodgers and Allen stand out as the three top candidates here, with Wilson in the mix too. All four should lead their teams to the postseason again this year, but the Bills stand out as a team with room to grow after gaining playoff experience last season. Allen is going to be throwing the ball early and often again, while also gobbling up a chunk of the carries in the running game. If Buffalo dominate the AFC East again, their franchise quarterback stands out as good value to scoop this award. The pick: Allen (+1000)
Most Passing Yards
Prescott certainly has a deep group of receivers to work with in Dallas but it is worth remembering that he is coming off a serious injury. Mahomes is the other obvious choice, with his numbers expected to climb this year behind a sturdier offensive line and with motivation to erase memories of the Super Bowl agony. Hill and Travis Kelce allow the Chiefs to create mismatches with ease, and Mahomes is never shy about taking shots down the field. If you are in the market for a longer shot, Herbert flashed enough in his starts as a rookie to suggest that he could pile up passing yards this season. With solid wide receivers, an excellent pass-catching back in Ekeler and the addition of tight end Jared Cook, the Chargers have the potential to be among the league’s most dynamic offenses. At around +1000, Herbert is an intriguing outside bet. The pick: Mahomes (+275)
Most Rushing Yards
Back-to-back rushing champion Derrick Henry leads the pack here, but the Titans are not the only team that leans heavily on the running game. Elliott and Chubb are both rushing behind excellent offensive lines and we are leaning towards Chubb, given the Browns’ greater focus on the ground game.
Look for odds of around +700. The pick: Chubb
Most Receiving Yards
The field is wide open here, with Diggs, Hill, Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins all solid choices. Hill’s ability to top 100 receiving yards on a weekly basis, even if he receives just a handful of targets, is the most appealing of that quartet, but we are leaning towards an Atlanta Falcons team that could be trailing on a regular basis this season. Calvin Ridley is the clear number one option for Matt Ryan and we expect the Falcons to be slinging the ball around given their defensive frailties. Terry McLaurin is an interesting longer shot (+2000) and will benefit from Fitzpatrick’s arrival – but we expect Washington to put a big focus on their running game which could limit the opportunities for McLaurin. The pick: Ridley (+900)
Coach of the Year
With expectations already sky-high for the Chiefs, Bills, Buccaneers and other Super Bowl contenders, the buzz for this award feels likelier to stem from more of a fringe contender. Brandon Staley is an interesting choice given the Chargers’ expected improvements, but he may need more than one season to put his stamp on the team. The Browns are ready to contend after impressive defensive additions this offseason – and Stefanski could emerge as a prime candidate if Cleveland claim the AFC North crown. The pick: Stefanski, Browns (+1400)
Defensive Player of the Year
With double and triple teams again on the cards, Aaron Donald’s numbers are unlikely to reflect his stellar impact. Myles Garrett should get votes as the leader of the Browns’ pass rush while Jamal Adams and Devin White are sneaky outside bets. But there is every reason to get excited about Washington’s defensive line this season – and that starts with Chase Young, who is primed to take a major leap in his second year. The pick: Young, Washington (+1100)
NFL Super Bowl Betting Tips
Rams over Chiefs
The Rams’ path to the Super Bowl has no shortage of obstacles, starting with a brutally tough division, but the Stafford upgrade should breathe life into the offense and position McVay’s offense to keep pace in this type of matchup. Equally, Donald, Jalen Ramsey and the rest of Los Angeles’ fearsome defense have the talent to create headaches for even the very best quarterbacks. The Chiefs will be hungry to avenge last year’s Super Bowl loss and, at full health, should be the class of the AFC again, narrowly ahead of the Bills. Look out for more Super Bowl coverage in late January in the build-up to the big game on Sunday February 13. The pick: Rams (+1300)
With a classic NFL season taking shape, count on betting.com to bring you the tips, picks and odds every step of the way.