Glorious Goodwood Day 3 - Mark Johnston strikes again?
Glorious Goodwood Day 3 sees 4 races live on ITV. These are the 1.50 a 1m 1f Handicap. There is also the Lillie Langtry,(2.25) The Richmond Stakes (3.00) & The Nassau (3.35).
The 1.25 is a race trainer Mark Johnston has won three times since 2009, including twice in the last five renewals. He has Ventura Knight and Communique entered. Ventura Knight has flopped on his last 2 appearances since winning at Ayr. For me Communique looks the most likely of his two runners. The red hot Silvestre De Sousa riding is a huge plus as well. He won last time out at Newmarket in and has a 5lb rise to contend with for that. 5/1 looks a fair price to me.
Al Jellaby has done little wrong in his five runs so far. He has yet to finish out of the first three and has gone close with two 2nd places in his last 2 appearances. This is a step up in class and trip and I think it may be another case of being the bridesmaid again. There has been money for him though and he is currently favourite for the race at 9/2.
The 2 trainers that have decent strike-rates with their 3 year-olds at the track are William Haggas (27%) and Gary Moore (32%).
Haggas runs Completion. I would ignore the disappointing run at Royal Ascot in the Brittania.
Before that he’d finished second to Crack On Crack On at Haydock. That form has since been franked by the winner. He is certainly great each way value at 8/1.
Gary Moore has Sing Out Loud entered. He has run twice at Goodwood before and has come 1st and 4th. This though is a step up in class. To counteract this though he does get in off a featherweight 8st 1lb and this make him a lively contender. Currently available at 9/1 he is another lively each way prospect.
Glorious Goodwood Group Racing Part I
The 2.25 sees the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Fillies and Mares race over 1m 6f.
The 3yo horses in this race get a handy 11lbs from the older horses in the race. Punters appear to have latched onto that and have made the Roger Varian trained Pilaster a clear 2nd favourite for the race. In some bookmakers it is joint favourite!
This filly was an easy 6 length winner at Kempton Park last time out. I just think there is little value to be had in backing this inexperienced filly at such short odds. He has only ran on turf once and was beaten comprehensively that day.
The other popular runner in the field will be the Luca Cumani-trained God Given.
She was a close second at Haydock in the Lancashire Oaks last time out going down by a short head. It is certainly worth noting that Ryan Moore has been booked for the ride.
Possible each way value lies in Precious Ramotswe.
She was only just back in third that day at the Lancashire Oaks and that was her 1st defeat on a racecourse.
She has won over 1m 5f and was a game winner when challenged in the final furlong of that race. Add in the fact Frankie is back riding her too.
3.00 sees another Group 2 race. The 6f Qatar Richmond Stakes for Colts and Geldings sees 9 runners go to post.
Anything the Aidan O’Brien camp run here should be noted as the yard have a 50% record with their 2yo horses at Goodwood.
Land Force would certainly be big player after running a close second in the Norfolk Stakes in Ascot. He then followed that up with a Listed success in Ireland.
Surprisingly though the Aiden O’Brien yard has a only won this race once before though and that came back in 2000 (Pyrus ridden by Mick Kinane). Currently trading around 11/2 although I expect that will not last long.
The Richard Fahey-trained Sabre is one I like the look of after running on well over 5f last time in the Windsor Castle. He is currently available around the 5/1 mark.
The step up to 6f looks a shrewd move by connections. He would certainly having a leading chance if running to that form again here.
Marie’s Diamond sees Mark Johnston and Silvestre De Sousa pair up again.
This colt has improved with every race and won a Group 3 a the Curragh last time out. If he can continue that form that gives him every chance.
With seven wins in the race (SR and JR) then the Hannon stable have by far the best recent record in the race they run Neverland Rock. Hannon JR is looking for his 3rd win in 5 years. He will have to go some way to emulate his father’s streak of 4 wins in a row from 2008 - 2012.
Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride and he wasn’t disgraced when third in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket last time.
That came over 7f but after struggling in the latter stages of the race I believe the drop back to 6f will help here. He has shown his liking for a quick surface.
Of the rest, Konchek has the form to go close too after running second in the Group 2 July Stakes at Newmarket last time out.
However, he’s yet to win over this 6f trip and after leading for much of the way last time looked vulnerable to a finisher and that might just be the case again here.
Glorious Goodwood Group Racing Part II
3.35 sees the main event of the day. The Group 1 Qatar Nassau Stakes.
There are only six runners going to post but still a competitive renewal.
With 12 of the last 14 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old then that would be a negative for the 5 year-old in the race Wilamina. The last 5yo winner was in 2011 and was Midday winning the 3rd Nassau in a row For Sir Henry Cecil.
The Epsom Oaks runner-up Wild Illusion is interesting now back in trip after not quite getting home in recent runs over further.
She was a fair fourth in the 1,000 Guineas to Billesdon Brook.
This 1m 2f trip looks like the ideal distancea fter running out of steam over 1m 4f in the Oaks and Ribblesdale Stakes recently.
Billesdon Brook was the big-priced winner of the 1,000 Guineas earlier this season but failed to build on that last time in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot.
Aidan O’Brien has a fine record in the race and has won the last two. He is aiming to make it 3 with his proven course winner Rhododendron.
This 4yo is the highest-rated in the field but an no sort of race last time out in the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot.
He is back up to his preferred 1m 2f here and is a G1 winner at this level. If he runs to his full potential he will take all the beating.
Veracious ran the classy Alpha Centauri to 7l in the Coronation Stakes last time out. She is another that is up in trip here, from 1m to 1m 2f. The big question is can she stay the extra 2f?
She’s only had 3 career runs so there looks to be more to come from this Frankel filly and Frankie Dettori rides.
One horse that gets the distance though is the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes winner Urban Fox.
She’s one of the few in the race with proven winning form over the trip.
The 4yo powered away to win that Curragh race well last time out on her first try over the trip.
She loves the fast ground. Having beaten the Epsom Oaks winner so easily last time then on that form should have the measure of the Oaks runner-up, Wild Illusion, too.
Glorious Goodwood Tip of The Day
MY TIP OF THE DAY IS FOR URBAN FOX TO WIN THE GROUP 1 NASSAU STAKES.
GENERALLY AVAILABLE AT 7/2.