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Tuesday , 17 October 2017
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betting on trump

Betting on Trump

Should we be betting on Trump? So how long will Donald Trump last as the 45th President of United States of America?

The backdrop.

In normal circumstances the answer is either 4 or 8 years depending on whether he is re-elected in 2020 but these are highly abnormal circumstances as this betdata chart shows.

betting on trump chart(c) betdata.io

Trump is beset by domestic political difficulties,  not least last week’s failure to even put Trumpcare to a vote,  so obviously unpopular it was with the congressmen and senators.

No matter how embarrassing, that sort of thing might be, it doesn’t bring down Presidents.

However, if it ever came to pass that a President could be charged with treason, this would be uncharted territory….

Think I am being melodramatic?

You may not be following the unraveling scandal in Washington over the links between the Trump campaign and Russia. More specifically, alleagtions concerning Russian mobsters, money launderers, spies and other assorted people with close ties to Putin.

Articles of concern.

Already petabytes of analysis, mis-analysis, and smoke blowing whether deliberate or otherwise has been devoted to this issue. Here is the BBC on 29 March:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39435786

yes, that’s the BBC…

Or

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/03/28/trump-business-past-ties-russian-mobsters-organized-crime/98321252/

USA Today

http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2017/03/exhaustive-history-donald-trump-russia-scandal-timeline

Mother Jones

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/scott-pelley-is-pulling-no-punches-on-the-nightly-news-and-people-are-taking-notice/2017/03/26/9763bf7c-0e4a-11e7-9d5a-a83e627dc120_story.html?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.8a46e529f179

Washington Post reporting on CBS News not pulling punches…

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-domestic-conspiracy-that-gave-trump-the-election_us_587ed24fe4b0b110fe11dbf9?

Huffington Post.

Now you know.

If you have read those links you have a primer on what is going on.

And what are they doing about it in America? A lot:

http://www.voanews.com/a/several-investigations-under-way-trump-russia-connections/3747336.html

Voice of America

As always in something like this, unsung and unheralded people with excellent connections emerge and provide detailed information before it hits the main media:

http://observer.com/2017/03/kremlingate-russia-spy-game-disinformation/

John Schindler

https://patribotics.blog/2017/03/28/kushner-and-trump-taped-at-secret-trump-tower-meetings-with-russians/

Louise Mensch (yes the former MP)

https://extranewsfeed.com/from-russia-with-oil-4d027411bcc5

Yonaton Zunger

The betting on Trump pulse.

In the days of twitter and the twitter presidency, the fastest way of getting the latest information is to follow tweets (and stay up all night!) and spot the betting opportunities-

@RepAdamSchiff 

@justinhendrix 

@AndreaChalupa 

@JustineBateman 

@ericgarland 

@th3j35t3r 

@mattmfm 

@MalcolmNance 

@RVAwonk 

@maggieNYT 

@LouiseMensch 

@Kasparov63 

@20committee 

are among the best in the most active.

Okay, what are the opportunities here for the betting community?

Political betting is fraught with dangers but rich with opportunities for the well-informed.  And very often, the information is hiding in plain sight.

The late Clement Freud paid for his London flat by getting £10,000 on himself to win the Ely by-election at 33/1.  The newspapers and television totally discounted his chances but he could see from the canvass returns what was happening on the ground in the constituency. Less dramatic, but when I stood for Parliament, my team got 6/1 against my coming second and did very nicely thank you very much…

With Trump, we are not dealing with a general election in an obscure constituency in South East London so you might argue that there is no chance to make money from betting on him.

However, this is where my warning about where dangers lie. Conventional wisdom says that it is impossible for a president to be successfully impeached (Nixon resigned).

Far too many people when they are betting on politics are betting on what they want to happen and are allowing their own political preferences to colour their judgement. They also tend to bet disproportionately on the status quo. Hence, Trump’s election itself made a lot of people a lot of money from the bookmakers.

Summary of betting opportunity.

Above all this creates pricing opportunities for those who are making a dispassionate judgements based on the gap between factual analysis and popular sentiment.

In the case of Trump, I suggest you consider the following factors:

-       Many commentators who know Washington inside out are forecasting he will be gone by the end of July

-       This looks highly improbable given that the president’s party, the Republicans (also known as the GOP) Control both houses and therefore would protect him

-       But Trump made many enemies on his own side in mishandling the repeal of Obamacare

-       And they are politicians looking to their own next elections in 2018; if they think Trump will drag them down, Trump will become disposable

-       The weight of investigations are such that much more will come out

-       This scandal involves Russia and Putin who will at some point see it as being in their interest to release information from their side to further damage America

-       And if you think Trump is innocent, can I suggest you try refinancing yourself by innocent means after going bankrupt four times

So what do I think will happen?

In summary, I would bet on Trump  no longer being president by 1 August.

What type of betting on Trump is the right one? I would not bet on impeachment necessarily as that is a long and complex process.  It is just as likely that Trump would resign or both Houses would invoke clause 4 of the 25th amendment to the Constitution and declare the President unfit for office.

In conclusion.

One final link:

https://lawfareblog.com/rise-autocrats

Finally, this is the writing of representative Adam Schiff of California who could be emerging from all this as the next Democratic Party presidential candidate.

About Leyland

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2 comments

  1. Follow up:

    This is a fast moving and likely to be accelerating situation.

    The BBC have rumbled Chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes! He appears to have lied about his visit to the White House grounds a few nights ago.

    Speculation is rife that the FBI gave Nunes a nugget of information to see which way he would run with it. Straight to the White House it turns out. So much for Senate oversight of the Presidency!

    If confirmed that the FBI were behind this, they got Nunes, two White House staffers and Steve Bannon (Breitbart and Trump’s strategy chief) with one hit- seemingly all of them breaking the law..

    Meantime, General Flynn- the ousted National Security Chief, looks to have been caught pretty well red-handed in a plot to remove a Turkish American resident to Turkey’s unwelcoming prisons, potentially implicating Nunes as well. Flynn has also offered to testify to the House Intelligence Committee (which Nunes has suspended indefinitely) in return for immunity from prosecution.

    The fun point here is that Flynn himself said only six months ago that anyone seeking immunity has to be guilty of something.

    Even better, the only times immunity is normally given is so that an even bigger fish can be caught. In which case, Flynn’s boss was Trump.

    No wonder whispers are suggesting Trump is considering all options including resignation- that might be worth a flutter.

  2. A set of 122 links between Trump and Russia: https://thetrumpwatchdog.com/2017/03/31/122-paths-from-trump-to-putin/

    As Lawfare points out, the collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence is out in the open: https://www.lawfareblog.com/course-theres-evidence-trump-colluded-russian-intelligence

    The New York Daily News call it war:
    http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/lost-war-russia-article-1.3001640?cid=bitly

    and Louise Mensch joins the dots:
    https://patribotics.blog/2017/04/01/alfa-bank-trump-tower-and-a-social-media-impeachment/

    Now the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee has stepped down from the investigation, expect more developments.

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