Held to a draw by Germany on matchday two, Spain can secure a knockout berth by avoiding defeat against Japan in their final group match.
Barring a Costa Rica victory or a massive goal difference swing from Germany, La Roja could still progress even if they lose to Japan.
The Samurai Blue got their tournament off to a flyer with a smash-and-grab win over Germany, but were unable to build on that when they were on the other side of an upset against Costa Rica.
They likely need a win in this match to reach the knockout rounds for a fourth time.
Total Goals: Over 2.5
Japan have taken 25 shots and conceded 30 in their two matches. There have been plenty of chances at both ends of the pitch.
The situation in the group encourages Hajime Moriyasu’s side to chase the game, knowing a draw probably isn’t enough with Germany expected to beat Costa Rica by a comfortable margin.
Spain have demonstrated how dangerous their attack can be when given space.
Through two matches, only France and Germany can better their expected goals mark. The over has great value for this match.
First Corner: Japan
Scoring first will put Japan in an amazing position. Spain’s intricate play doesn’t lead to a lot of corners – they have had just 11 over the two matches, including only five in their drubbing of Costa Rica.
Japan could start quickly here. Knowing a win is probably required, they might commit men forward early on in the hope they can catch Spain out.
This is a good price on the Samurai Blue to win the first corner.
Anytime Goalscorer: Alvaro Morata
Alvaro Morata is getting off 3.75 shots per 90 and clocking 0.63 expected goals per 90.
Albeit in a tiny sample of just 69 minutes on the pitch, the former Chelsea striker has made a big impact, scoring twice in two substitute appearances.
Morata changed the game for Spain against Germany. Even if he’s limited to a bench role in this one, he is a good bet to find the net.
He now has four goals in his last seven appearances at major tournaments.
All odds are subject to change