France cruised past Poland. England overcame a slow start to beat Senegal emphatically.
These two powerhouses of European football have only played two competitive matches against each other since the turn of the century, and England have only beaten Les Bleus once since 1997.
Looking to defend their title, France are understandably favoured, but Didier Deschamps is missing several big-name players, including Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante.
Gareth Southgate is yet to lose a knockout match in normal time as England manager.
To Qualify: England
England and France are closer than the betting markets suggest.
France are 4/5 to qualify, which seems generous for a team yet to keep a clean sheet and missing so many important members of their squad.
Southgate hasn’t faced a challenge of this level in knockout football yet, but his England team have generally found a way to progress.
As this match moves into the second half and potentially extra time, the quality of England’s bench could make the difference.
Anytime Goalscorer: Harry Kane
Harry Kane has had an exceptional World Cup despite only scoring his first goal against Senegal.
Kane has taken on playmaking rather than goal-scoring duty for the most part, but his strike before half-time on Sunday was a reminder of his clinical finishing.
With seven shots over the last three matches, Kane is still getting opportunities. He’s a good price to score an eighth World Cup goal.
Player Shots: Kylian Mbappe Over 3.5
England have been solid defensively over their last three matches, keeping clean sheets against the USA, Wales and Senegal.
That run has not been without chances conceded, however, and at no point have they faced a team of this calibre or a player anywhere near Kylian Mbappe’s level.
Mbappe leads the tournament in non-penalty expected goals, and has scored five times in the competition. He has fired off 18 shots across his three starts, going over this number in each of those matches.
This game will follow a different pattern, but there’s still value here.
All odds are subject to change