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Burkina Faso vs Tunisia at AFCON on Jan 29. 2022 - Odds & Prediction

Burkina Faso vs Tunisia at AFCON on Jan 29. 2022 - Odds & Prediction

The second of Saturday’s AFCON quarter-finals sees Burkina Faso take on Tunisia in Garoua.

Burkina Faso scraped through to the last eight in dramatic fashion on Sunday after beating Gabon on penalties, following a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes.

Tunisia, meanwhile, recovered from a nightmare start to their AFCON campaign to qualify for the knockout stages, before causing something of a shock by beating Nigeria in their Round of 16 Clash.

  • Kindly note that all information in this preview, including whether or not the event will take place, is subject to change due to Covid-19.
MarketPrediction
Over/Under - Total GoalsUnder 1.5
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Under 1.5 Goals

On the whole, we’ve struggled for goals at the Africa Cup of Nations so far. Tunisia are one of the sides in the tournament whose games have been rather tepid on the goals front, with three of their four games being settled by just one strike.

The same could also be said about their Arab Cup campaign at the backend of 2021, with four of their final five matches in the tournament seeing one or fewer goals.

And as underdogs, Burkina Faso don’t inspire much confidence as a goal scoring proposition either. The Stallions may well have found the net in all four of their AFCON games so far, but three of the matches have seen under 2.5 goals.

Tunisia find themselves 6/4 favourites to win this one, so the bookies aren’t hugely convinced about them taking this game by the scruff of the neck, and with that in mind, we’re expecting yet another tense, cagey affair between two sides afraid to lose.

We expect the lack of AFCON goals to continue here, so Under 1.5 goals is our selection at odds of 11/8.

Burkina Faso Form, squad news, opinion

You don’t necessarily need to display your best form in the group stages of a major cup competition, but Burkina Faso could perhaps do with stepping things up a notch after winning just one of their four games over the course of 90 minutes.

They almost threw away qualification for the last eight after being pegged back by Gabon in their Round Of 16 clash despite being 1-0 up and in control of the game against ten men, following Sidney Obissa’s second-half red card.

Their group stage showing did little to inspire too. They followed up their 2-1 loss against hosts Cameroon with a 1-0 win over Cape Verde, before holding out for a 0-0 draw against Ethiopia to just about secure their passage to the knockout stages.

But while Burkina Faso remain in the hat, they always have a chance. The brief in any tournament is to improve with every game, but they will need to find an extra gear or two against a Tunisia side with a siege mentality at present.

Tunisia Form, squad news, opinion

It’s safe to say tempers were flared in the Tunisia camp, following their controversial 1-0 defeat to Mali in their tournament opener.

The Eagles of Carthage followed that result up with a 4-0 thumping of minnows Mauritania and things were seemingly on the up ahead of their clash with Gambia to close out the group stage.

However, a 1-0 defeat to the Gambians left their qualification destiny out of their hands, but they scraped through as one of the best third-placed sides and haven’t looked back since.

Their defensive grit could see them go very far in this edition of AFCON and they took advantage of a Nigerian implosion to win 1-0 and seal their place in the last eight. With several sides looking error prone, could this slowly improving Tunisia side quietly make their way to the last four?

We think they might.

History

There isn’t a great deal of history between these two sides, who have played just half a dozen times since their first meeting in 1995.

But Burkina Faso certainly have the upper hand, winning three and drawing two of those meetings, including a 2-0 win at this very stage of the 2017 Africa Cup of Nations, before they were knocked out on penalties by Egypt in the semis.

In fact, Tunisia don’t have a competitive victory to their name against Burkina Faso, with their only success coming courtesy of a 2-0 friendly win back in November 1995, in what was the second meeting between the two.

About the Venue

The Saturday night clash will take place at the Roumde Adjia Stadium in Garoua in northern Cameroon.

This perhaps gives the Tunisians the edge, who secured their famous win over Nigeria in the previous round at this stadium. Burkina Faso, meanwhile, are yet to play a game in the region at this tournament.

Conclusion

This one really could go either way, but one or two clues give us the impression that Tunisia might just have the edge here.

The Lions of Carthage are defensively more compact, and their experience of playing in Garoua could be telling in a game that is likely to be defined by fine margins.

Burkina Faso certainly have the individual flair to cause some problems, but after playing 120 minutes and a penalty shootout last time out, we think that’s likely to catch up with them this weekend.