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Back-to-back 0-0 draws have derailed AC Milan’s Scudetto bid, with their lead at the top now down to two points, while they’ve also played a game more than second-placed city rivals Inter.
Perhaps what makes things worse for the Rossoneri was both games should’ve been nailed on wins against mid-table duo Bologna and Torino, but next up they have a chance to put things right against a Genoa side that are having a truly miserable campaign.
No side has won fewer than Genoa’s two victories in 32 Serie A games this season, while only bottom side Salernitana have a worse scoring record than them. This weekend’s San Siro visitors have managed just 24 league goals all season.
Only a win will do for Milan, so read on for our verdict and expert football betting tips.
There’s no margin for error for the hosts on Good Friday, but although their attacking prowess has deserted them in recent weeks, their defensive record has been superb.
Stefano Pioli’s side come into this one on a run six consecutive clean sheets, having not conceded since a 1-1 draw with Udinese in late February.
That said, goals have been a bit of an issue for some time. Milan have scored just four goals in their last seven games, so while they should really have too much for this Genoa side, we can’t see them blowing opposition away anytime soon.
It’s just one away win all season in Serie A for Genoa, and even that came against struggling Cagliari, and they head into this one having scored just one goal in their last six domestic games on the road.
That spells trouble ahead of a trip to a title-chasing side, and while it’s tempting to dip into handicaps for a convincing home win, we prefer the AC Milan Win to Nil available at 9/10 (bet365) with most major sports betting sites.
At first look, it looks as if AC Milan are doing things the hard way, but the bigger picture shows just one defeat in their last 17, so there’s a durability about this side that’s been missing for a number of years.
And that will stand them in good stead for what is a tricky final six matches for Pioli’s troops, who still have to go to the Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio, as well as potentially tricky home games against the dangerous duo of Fiorentina and Atalanta.
Despite their strong defensive record in recent weeks, Milan have actually conceded the most goals out of any side in Serie A’s top four, so the fact they’ve tightened up in time for the run-in is surely good news.
But could a lack of goals be their undoing? No player in the squad has managed double figures yet, with Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud on nine and eight respectively, and with the likes of Inter and Napoli having more depth and fresher legs up top, that could be the difference.
One major blow is the loss of full-back Alessandro Florenzi, who is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
Perhaps the most surprising thing about Genoa’s season is that, despite winning just twice all season, they are in fact just three points adrift of safety.
That is largely down to the sheer number of draws this side pick up. Il Grifone have ended all square in 16 of their 32 league games, which is at least four more than any other side in the division, but a lack of cutting edge is killing their chances of survival.
It’s a mixed run-in for Alexander Blessin’s side, who still have to play three of the top four, but clashes with fellow strugglers Cagliari and Sampdoria will go a long way to determining their fate come the end of the year.
Midfield duo Nicolo Rovella and Stefano Sturaro are both likely to miss this one through injury.
In addition to the form of the two sides, a look into the recent history of this fixture doesn’t make for pleasant reading for Genoa.
They’ve won just one of their last eleven meetings with Milan, although that was a 2-1 victory at the San Siro in 2020.
When you think of Italian football stadia, the San Siro instantly springs to mind, and the 80,000-seater is comfortably the largest ground in Italy.
But footballing purists will be saddened to learn that plans are in place for a new cathedral-style stadium to be built in its place, with a completion date set for the year 2027.
If AC Milan had some slightly better form, this would have all the hallmarks of a straightforward home win, but a lack of goals from their forward line does leave the door slightly ajar for the lowly visitors.
We don’t think this will be a thrashing, and the Rossoneri may well have to wait for a breakthrough, but clean sheets have been their forte in recent weeks so a win to nil makes plenty of sense from a betting perspective.