Who’s Going to Win Serie A? Outright Betting Tips & Predictions for 2022-23

The 2022-23 Serie A season gets under way on Saturday with defending champions Milan priced as 5/1 outsiders to retain their title.

Despite ending an 11-year Scudetto drought last season, Milan are behind city rivals Inter and Juventus in the pre-season Serie A title odds.

Newly-promoted sides Cremonese and Lecce are the two favourites for relegation, while Juve’s Dusan Vlahovic and Inter’s Romelu Lukaku are tied at the top of the Golden Boot betting. 

Roma, who won the Europa Conference League and finished outside the top four in 2021-22, are one of the favoured teams for a top four spot under Jose Mourinho. 

This is another wide-open Serie A season – what are the best outright bets?

Winner: Inter

15/8 (Betfred)

Having reunited with Romelu Lukaku after topping the expected goals table by a considerable distance last season, Inter are the title favourites before the 2022-23 Serie A campaign gets under way. 

It’s easy to see why. This squad is still stacked with quality, and Lukaku should once again make them a dominant attacking team (the Belgian scored 47 Serie A goals in 65 starts across two seasons at San Siro). 

Juventus remain flawed, even after bringing in Paul Pogba, Angel Di Maria and Bremer, while it’s a big ask for Milan to repeat their 2021-22 heroics.

Inter are the best side in Italy, and will take some beating this season. 

Top Four: Roma 

Evens (Sportingindex)

Roma ended last season on a high, and they are the pre-season betting favourites to join Inter, Milan and Juventus in the top four this term.

The club have backed Jose Mourinho in the transfer market, bringing in Georginio Wijnaldum, Paulo Dybala, a Mourinho favourite in Nemanja Matic and Zeki Celik. 

Players have departed too, but this generally looks like a stronger squad than last season’s iteration. 

The 2021-22 team was arguably unlucky to finish sixth, having recorded the fourth-best expected goal difference for the campaign, well ahead of Juventus and Lazio. 

It won’t always be pretty under Mourinho, but he can still grind out results. Roma are a good value bet to quality for the Champions League for the first time since 2017-18. 

Relegation: Salernitana

5/4 (William Hill)

Salernitana avoided relegation by just one point last season, and had a worse expected goal difference than two of the relegated sides. It has been a busy summer transfer window, with Ederson, Milan Djuric and Joel Obi departing.

I Granata made 14 signings, with a clear emphasis on youth. While talent has been added to a group which struggled in 2021-22, such an overhaul can often prove to be counterproductive. 

Goals were a real problem last term, with Federico Bonazzoli being the only player to score more than five times in the league. Djuric and Simone Verdi were next on the goal scoring charts at five apiece, but both have left the club. 

Top Scorer: Victor Osimhen

15/1 (Unibet)

Victor Osimhen isn’t playing for a title contender, as Napoli are not even favoured for the top four. Still, the Nigerian is an interesting prospect in Golden Boot betting, having scored 24 goals in 39 Serie A starts since his move to Naples. 

Injury issues have limited the Nigerian’s game time in Serie A, but he has been productive when available. Only six players posted a higher expected goals per 90 mark than Osimhen’s 0.52 in 2021-22.

If he can start 30 or more times, Osimhen is going to be in the mix for the 2022-23 Golden Boot. He scored more goals per 90 than Dusan Vlahovic did following his transfer to Juventus.

All odds are subject to change

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