Mohamed Salah and Heung-Min Son shared the Golden Boot last term with 23 goals apiece, after Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy won in 2020-21 and 2019-20 respectively. Two of the last four Golden Boots have been shared.
Since Salah scored 32 back in 2017-18, no Premier League player has scored more than 23 in a season. Could that ceiling be broken in 2022-23?
We’ve dived into the pre-season Golden Boot betting to identify the best value wagers.
Erling Haaland
Coming off 49 goals in 48 Bundesliga starts over the last two seasons, Erling Haaland is unsurprisingly favourite to win the 2022-23 Premier League Golden Boot.
Haaland joins a Manchester City attack which creates chances for fun. In just 21 starts last season, Haaland was only one goal shy of the tally which saw Salah and Son tie for the Golden Boot. He’s unlikely need long to adapt, and will have even better goal scoring opportunities with City’s array of creative talent.
Even if injuries and rotation limit Haaland to around 30 starts this season, he’s going to be right in the mix for top-scorer honours.
Mohamed Salah
Winner of the Golden Boot in three of the last five seasons, Mohamed Salah is among the frontrunners yet again. Months of speculation about his future came to an end this summer with a long-awaited contract extension, and Salah is poised for another productive campaign.
Liverpool have bolstered their forward options over the last few transfers windows with Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota, but there’s no question Salah remains the main man at Anfield.
Salah is pretty much a guarantee for 20-plus Premier League goals. Bettors should consider backing him at this price, particularly with the 30-year-old enjoying some invaluable extra rest while others compete at the World Cup in Qatar.
Gabriel Jesus
Arsenal splashed the cash on Gabriel Jesus this summer, despite the Brazil international scoring a grand total of 17 Premier League goals over the last two seasons. The move to north London presents a fresh start for Jesus, and an opportunity to start as the centre forward on a regular basis.
The Gunners have a soft schedule to start the season, which should help Jesus find some goalscoring form early on. This price could shorten considerably in a few weeks’ time.
An intelligent mover off-the-ball, Jesus will slot comfortably into the Arsenal attack alongside Bukayo Saka, Emile Smith Rowe and Martin Odegaard.
Winning the Golden Boot is a big ask for a player who has never scored more than 14 times in a league season, but if you fancy Arsenal to have a good year, it’s worth backing Jesus at these odds.
Raheem Sterling
Like Jesus, a change of scenery makes Raheem Sterling an intriguing Golden Boot candidate. With only 23 goals over the last two seasons, it’s understandable that the England international is an outsider in the preseason odds.
But if fit, Sterling will get far more than the 23 starts Pep Guardiola provided in 2021-22. Chelsea aren’t after a striker to replace Romelu Lukaku, and will instead look to Kai Havertz and Sterling as their main goalscoring options.
Only a couple of years removed from a 20-goal season, Sterling is a great longshot wager.
All odds subject to change