Leeds v Aston Villa Betting Tips & Predictions

Leeds are 27/20 favourites for their Premier League clash with Aston Villa at Elland Road on Sunday afternoon.

Leeds should have Rodrigo available due to his shoulder injury not requiring surgery.

Aston Villa are waiting on the fitness of Matty Cash and are without summer acquisitions Diego Carlos and Boubacar Kamara. 

Villa won this fixture 3-0 earlier this year, following a 3-3 thriller when they met at Villa Park.

Some pressure was eased on Steven Gerrard with a win over Southampton before the break, while Leeds have taken just one of the last nine available points.

Winner: Leeds 

27/20 (Bet365)

The expected goals table likes how Leeds have played thus far.

With a better expected goal difference per 90 than Manchester United and Chelsea, Jesse Marsch’s team are creating chances at a good rate, and have improved defensively since the porous back line of the Marcelo Bielsa era.

Villa have been hard to watch this season, placing 18th in expected goal difference per 90. Only Bournemouth have created fewer chances.

The visitors will have built some confidence by beating Southampton, but that’s not enough to back them here. Leeds already have seven points from three league matches at Elland Road.

Most Corners: Leeds

8/11 (Unibet)

Just two teams average fewer corners per game than Aston Villa.

Leeds’ mark of 4.7 corners per contest is a shade below league average. The hosts should dominate the ball here (only four teams have had more possession in 2022-23).

In the top half in shots per match, Leeds are unafraid to have a go and play with plenty of width, creating corner opportunities through blocked crosses.

This price seems too long for Leeds to have the most corners on Sunday afternoon.

Anytime Goalscorer: Patrick Bamford

39/20 (Unibet)

Patrick Bamford has amassed the second-most expected goals among goalless Premier League players. Against a Villa defence which has conceded seven goals in three away league matches, Bamford is well-placed to end his goal drought this weekend. 

Bamford has happy memories of facing Villa, having netted a hat-trick against the Midlands club in October 2020. 

All odds are subject to change

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