Boris Johnson Exit Date Betting Odds 2023
When will UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson leave the job? And who is the favourite to replace him? Get all the Johnson exit date odds right here.
Will Boris Johnson Go and How?
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is standing on the precipice, with his political future hanging by a thread.
And though he has famously survived all manner of scandals since winning the 2019 general election, many insiders are predicting that the latest controversy – known as “Partygate” – could be the one to bring him down.
With the publication of the already infamous Sue Gray report apparently imminent, odds on Johnson resigning or being pushed out of office sometime during 2022 have been slashed in recent days.
William Hill are offering odds of 1/3 on him failing to make it through the year and Bet365 will give you 1/2.
But then again, over the last two years Bojo has proved himself to be one of the most wily and successful political survivors out there.
So there is definitely value to be had in betting on the Eton graduate to somehow cling on to his position for another 11 months and make it through to 2023.
And there are more UK politics-related markets to bet on than just the date of Bojo’s departure.
There’s also the small matter of who will replace Johnson when he finally walks out that famous 10 Downing Street door for the last time.
Politics is a cutthroat game and, as usual, the vultures have been circling ever since they got a whiff of the PM’s vulnerability, with Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss the leading candidates.
Read on for all the insight, info and of course odds on the latest British politics betting excitement.
When Will Boris Go?
It’s the question on everybody’s lips. Just how long will Boris Johnson manage to stick around?
Many Conservative Party members, particularly his fellow Members of Parliament, have reportedly had enough of Johnson’s antics, with many thinking it’s time for him to go.
Essentially, the decision belongs to the Conservative Party MPs. If at least 54 Tory MPs write to the party’s powerful 1922 committee requesting a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister then the vote will be held.
If he then loses this vote Johnson will be forced to quit and a leadership election will be held with the winner becoming Prime Minister.
Enormous pressure has been mounting on the 57-year-old ever since December 2021, when the Daily Mirror published allegations of Christmas gatherings at 10 Downing Street during the height of the COVID-19 lockdown the year before.
While Johnson’s opponents claim the events broke the health restrictions in place at the time, he has consistently insisted that it was a work gathering and therefore allowed.
Since The Mirror’s original article was released various outlets have claimed other parties have taken place on Boris’s watch, leading to the appointment of senior civil servant Sue Gray to head an inquiry into the entire affair.
If Gray’s report does prove unequivocally that Johnson broke the rules then it is hard to see how he will be able to avoid resigning during 2022. But of course this depends on the content of the report and when it is published.
The report had been expected to be submitted to Downing Street last week and then published within days.
However, on Tuesday the Metropolitan Police announced they were conducting their own inquiry and had asked Gray to remove sections which relate to the police investigation.
This has led to speculation that the Gray report may either be delayed or published with any salacious details redacted.
Either way, it’s unlikely that the police report will take more than a few months to be produced.
Therefore, the truth about whether Johnson knew about and allowed rule-breaking parties to go ahead on his watch will most probably be revealed some time in 2022.
The stronger the evidence, the more likely he’ll be out the door before the year’s end.
Different Odds for Him Leaving in 2022
With the many rumours, pictures and reports all pointing to a high probability that Johnson did actually breach the very rules he forced on the British public, it’s no surprise that the odds on him leaving in 2022 are extremely short.
Novelty bet specialists Sportnation have him at 4/9 to quit before New Year’s Day 2023, while Betfair are offering exactly the same odds.
Meanwhile, you can get odds of 1/2 at Betfair on 2022 being the final year of the Johnson premiership while William Hill will pay out just 1/3.
Some of the longest odds are over at Boyle Sports who are currently offering 1/4.
But who knows just how strong the evidence will be, and whether Conservative MPs will turn a blind eye to the details in either the Gray report or police investigation?
If his House of Commons colleagues decide not to oust the Prime Minister then Johnson has every chance of remaining in his position for at least another 11 months.
This is also connected to how strongly they believe Johnson can win the next election for the Tory’s compared to the chances of any replacement.
Although Johnson is currently knee-deep in muck, if the Gray report proves to be a damp squib and the news cycle has moved on by the time the police investigation finally sees the light of day, he could very easily wriggle his way out of yet another embarrassing situation.
Both SkyBet and Unibet will give you odds of 6/4 on Johnson sticking it out till 2023 or later, while you can get 10/3 at William Hill on him still being in the post in 2024 and beyond.
When the end finally comes for the mop-topped political legend, attention will immediately turn to the Conservative Party leadership election.
Once that becomes a reality, odds on the leading candidates will inevitably be cut.
So to get the best value it’s worth keeping an eye on the prices and putting a quick bet on his replacement even before Johnson is ousted.
Rishi Shunak – 7/4
Rishi Sunak, 41, is the frontrunner to become the new Prime Minister of Great Britain should Bojo be forced out.
You can get odds of 7/4 at Bet365 on the Chancellor of the Exchequer winning a leadership election while Betfred have him at 2/1
The Member of Parliament for Richmond (Yorks) has been Chancellor since Sajid Javid resigned back in February 2020, just before the pandemic hit.
Over the last two years he has gained credibility with the introduction of the popular furlough scheme which provided funds for employers to continue paying staff who otherwise would have been made unemployed.
Liz Truss – 6/1
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is way behind Sunak in second position according to the bookies.
It’s been just four months since the 46-year-old took over from Dominic Raab at the head of the Foreign Office.
But in that short period she has already cemented her credibility and Sportnation has her currently priced at 6/1 to take the top job after Johnson’s time comes to an end.
Jeremy Hunt – 7/1
Once one of the leading voices in the cabinet, Jeremy Hunt has been on the back benches since he was replaced by Raab as Foreign Secretary.
He battled Boris Johnson in the last leadership election, making it to the final two but losing out in the end.
Despite this, the former Health Secretary remains popular among the Tory faithful.
Since the start of the pandemic Hunt became an outspoken critic of Johnson’s COVID policies, particularly when the government continued to allow mass gatherings.
At the time of writing Hunt is 7/1 with LeoVegas to become the next Prime Minister.
Tom Tugendhat – 9/1
Initially a complete outsider, Tom Tugendhat grabbed the headlines over the weekend when he became the first MP to announce that he would be willing to run to replace Johnson in a leadership election.
Right now you can get 9/1 at Unibet on the Foreign Affairs Select Committee chairman beating more prominent candidates and taking his place in Number 10.
Tugendhat, a former soldier who spoke out against the government’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal last summer, has reportedly won over the support of a group of centrist Conservatives.
These are exciting times for British politics bettors with Johnson still hanging on to power but many commentators predicting that his days are numbered.
With the Gray report yet to be published, this could be the perfect time to get in there and place an early bet on how long Johnson could last and who would replace him if he does get forced out.
The longer the report is delayed the more likely that Boris will survive. But that of course also depends on what scandals wait around the corner – and we wouldn’t put it past the Fleet Street editors to be holding even more information in their back pockets.