If you asked a certain number of punters about cricket odds, you would see either smile of jubilation or expressions of horror. Both are fitting results, as cricket has always been a sport that’s in equal measures loved and misunderstood. So, what aspect of cricket odds makes them so volatile and able to evade the better judgment of even the most seasoned pros? Is it the unpredictability or the fact that it’s hard to learn the ins and outs of cricket odds?
Most would say that it’s the challenging learning curve, and we would concur, but we also noticed something else. Cricket odds may be hard to master, but they can be a real cash cow if you establish a decent-enough analytical approach. In this guide, you’ll learn to do precisely that. Using simple, logical strategies, you’ll soon be adept at finding the best cricket odds and boosting your bankroll by a significant amount. A little effort goes a long way.
Cricket odds are calculated by various oddsmakers throughout the world. These professionals are required to follow cricket events and developments all year long. By taking into account various factors, they use advanced software to create cricket odds.
Now, what do cricket odds consist of? All bookmakers use them as a way to express the level of implied probability. Each factor that experts and oddsmakers deem worthy is a piece of the puzzle that IMPLIES whether an outcome is probable or not. It can be as simple as Zimbabwe losing to England five times in a row, which would imply that their chances of winning are low, resulting in low cricket odds being posted on England winning. That means we’re talking about a surefire win.
High cricket odds, on the other hand, mean that the outcome on which bets are accepted is improbable, given all data taken into account. These markets should be used to bolster your betting slip and ensure that you can have a financial cushion in lucrative cricket odds.
Knowing how oddsmakers come up with cricket odds is a great start, but what’s the value of that when we don’t have the same resources they do? The crux of this knowledge is knowing how to isolate the best cricket odds from ‘hidden traps’. Approaching your betting slips like a true analytics expert can let you have an objective view of your likeliness to win.
Every approach needs a proper foundation. To help you specialize in One Day, Test, and other formats once you’ve mastered the basics, we’ve conducted a significant amount of research pertaining to what goes into the calculation of cricket odds. While variables are plentiful, the following four rise above all others:
The form of cricket which is being played. Unbeknownst to most fans and non-fans alike, cricket odds depend on which variation of the sport you’re betting on. Most punters like to focus on national teams, which gives you a choice of three recognized formats: T20, ODI, and Test, all of which have different durations and amounts of overs. Some countries, like India, dominate in Test matches, resulting in low cricket odds in such cases. Others are not suited to the game form, resulting in handicaps being posted on them.
Performances in the last few games. When looking for today’s cricket odds, being easily impressed by numbers won’t do you any good. To solidify the addition of even the juiciest cricket odds on the market, you need to run a check on both teams’ stats in the last ten games. Were they particularly weak in some areas? How did they handle various forms of pressure? Check for any unusually good or unusually bad performance by players. Only then can you see if those particular cricket odds belong on your slip.
Standout players. Whilst cricket is a team sport, cricket odds are calculated with top players being used as an important variable. A prolific batsman or a spin bowler can make or break a team’s strategy, as well as prevent the other team from implementing theirs. Cricket odds that you want to use for accas usually revolve around middling teams with great individual stars. Go for props, but focus on spreads if you really want to avoid risking it all.
Statistical outliers. If there is one weakness in most cricket odds comparison tools that’s the treatment of outliers. Ever so often, a player can have a historical performance, and it’s almost instantly considered as an important factor by most oddsmakers. Before you decide to take the plunge on any cricket odds, always see if there is any reason to believe consistency will ensue. If not, stay away from those cricket odds.
Once you understand the impact of these factors on cricket odds, you will have a starting point on which you can base your own analyses. We at BettingMetrics prefer creating custom-made strategies. Once you mark all the cricket odds, you’ve aimed that with a particular approach, you can determine the success of that strategy in praxis. Before you do that, let’s take a look at how exactly cricket odds move and for what reasons.
Cricket odds usually move due to an event or occurrence that is deemed significant enough to affect the probability of a certain outcome. Oddsmakers follow their cricket betting odds from the moment they post them, just to be able to alter them if anything jeopardizes the likeliness. As cricket odds drop or rise, so do your potential winnings. Therefore, it’s crucial that you know how to predict movements, especially if you need to find cricket odds for live betting. Not only will you be able to recognize the most probable outcome, but you’ll also recognize risky markets.
Dropping a market that can potentially move either way is a great way to escape last-minute losses and avoid cashing out every other day. Rookie bettors could definitely use cricket odds as a practice field for learning how to play it safe. That’s why studying movements should be one of the first things on everyone’s how-to guide to sports betting.
At first glance, it seems like cricket odds can be moved by literally anything. While this is technically true, we at BettingMetrics are never satisfied with any result preceded by the word ‘technically’. So, we did the logical thing and observed all cricket odds on 25+ betting sites, focusing on their movements. Both pre-match and live betting lines were taken into consideration. Here’s what caused movements the most:
The state of the pitch. Spoiler alert - most cricket odds movements on this list will involve Test match situations, as these games last for several days and are more prone to external influences. For starters, we have the natural erosion of the pitch after it’s been pounded for hours at a time. On day one, batting is a piece of cake, but on day four - the pitch can be so damaged that the match may very well become unwatchable. Cricket odds for live bets tend to ignore big leads coming into day one, but teams usually maintain the lead as the pitch gets worse and worse.
Weather conditions. Weather changes during ODI and T20 games can happen, but they’re incredibly rare and don’t impact cricket odds that match. One situation where you find weather-induced movements is literally any Test match. Analyze the forecast closely and you can actually predict the state of the pitch, as well as things such as batting difficulty and approximate ball speed. Look for cricket odds in matches with clear weather for days, just to avoid your favourites messing things up.
Tactical strengths and weaknesses over the course of a series. Most epic rivalries, such as The Ashes, are so coveted because teams face off over the course of a whole series. Cricket odds easily move as many question marks disappear when the teams are 10+ hours into play one another. If England’s coach sees a way to defeat South Africa, cricket odds for the next match will reflect these developments, with varying degrees depending on the bookmaker.
To truly master the art that is finding the best cricket odds, you need to be adept at reverse-calculations of odds, as well as predicting their movement. However, there are also some things that every punter should consider before looking for the cricket odds suitable for takings punts on.
Our very own team of cricket odds experts approached this task very seriously, with the goal being to find some of the least-coveted patterns in cricket betting. Here’s what you should focus on before taking the plunge:
Keep track of rivalries, such as the Basil D’Olivera Trophy or the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. These matches have a historical significance that transcends mere cricket odds or weather conditions. National teams always play with a significant dose of pride, so you already know it will be a proper bloodbath.
Never focus solely on high odds, especially when it comes to Test cricket. T20 matches are ideal for high cricket odds, as you can test your approach with a single just before the match. Live betting should be reserved solely for Test events.
Props usually have the very best cricket odds, but so many things have to go right for you to win. Nevertheless, you can pick a player or two to focus on and create a separate betting slip just for prop bets. Cricket betting odds on your main slip don’t need the extra risk-factor, though.