Last updated: 13 Oct 11:03
Have you ever wondered how to choose a profitable sports betting tipster? Surely, there are many punters around the world, wondering how to choose the right tipster without being scammed and build a sustainable betting portfolio.
There are more and more blogs around the web popping up with people showing off how successful they are following some tipsters. Well, let me tell you something - it is not that easy to find reliable tipster. I have been approached on various occasions and asked by punters how to share my experience with them. This is why I have decided to write an article that puts some frames to follow when choosing a tipster! I sincerely hope will help many people to make better choices and find the tipsters that is a perfect fit for their needs!
A rather smart question you have to ask yourself - why do you have to listen to my advice? Well, my name is Martin Grozev, and I am a co-founder of Betting.com. I have over 6 years of experience betting on sports and have utilised various betting strategies such as arbitrage, matched and value betting, following tipsters, building own betting models and pretty much anything else you can think of in terms of sports betting.
I have proved that it is possible to make money by following tipsters, but it is nowhere close to easy. It requires a lot of patience, discipline, and it does take more time then what you expect. In this article, you will find explanations of how the tipsters work, why you can rely on their services, and how to avoid missteps while you are following tipsters. In addition, if you are interested in becoming a tipster, we explained how you can achieve it in our platform.
When placing a bet, every player aims for the win. For punters who want to become professional gamblers, the high winning percentage is a must, and they should always search for ways to optimize their betting strategies and gain valuable information and data about their bets. This is where the tipsters come in hand. These professionals help punters optimize their betting strategies, give them confidence in a certain outcome of an event and most importantly – provide them with experienced advice and tips, based on various factors such as experience, quant models deep and niche knowledge.
The tipster is a professional punter that has a deep understanding, backed up with data and statistics, in various sports fields and provides casual sports bettors with predictions and betting advice. Unlike some pro gamblers, the tipster has chosen to distribute his predictions to the community, where in most cases he will provide his tips to a limited amount of people. Punters can find various tipsters that differ according to the sport, division and work ethics – some of them provide their tips for free trough Twitter where others will require a fee for every tip they give to the player via emails and third which will be super expensive will offer their service to a hand full amount of people.
Of course, a professional punter has enough experience and data, as well as a working betting strategy, not to need the services of a tipster. However, semi-pros and people that are new to betting may be interested in following a couple of tipsters and diversifying the risk of losing their betting banks. Tipsters are especially helpful for novice players. They have all the data analysed, have a detailed overview of the particular sport or division, and will help beginner punters build their strategy and start winning from the bets they placed.
There is no such thing as a free meal, and every punter has to be aware that even though tipsters are very helpful, sometimes they can be harmful to the overall betting portfolio. In the web you can find numerous websites and social accounts that claim to provide professional betting tips in the exchange of a fee but don’t give the player any statistics about past performances, winning percentage or return on investment (ROI). Therefore, there is a risk of ending up paying a tipster for advice, which is more of a gamble than a calculated risk and well-thought bet.
Tipsters nowadays have evolved and invented new ways of misleading people and making them pay for tips, which are not worth it. For example, they can give different predictions to each follower for the same event. This is easy to explain – the more outcomes the tipster covers – the better the chance of a punter winning and having to pay the tipster a fee. This can be very harmful to the end-user. This tipster’s strategy is very harmful to the player, and his bankroll, so don’t forget to track the performance of each tipster separately. Be very cautious and if you notice unusual behaviour of the tipster you are following question him as much as you can. Nevertheless, we strongly advise players to carefully select the tipsters they follow, to research them and trust only the ones that provide you with enough evidence about their past performance and ways they create their bet predictions.
Because punters so highly demand the services of tipsters, many fake websites just charge for betting tips but don’t provide players with adequate information and do not have a genuine edge over the bookmakers. This is why we’ve gathered some of the most important things, which you have to be looking for while selecting a tipster.
First and foremost, we advise players to be very careful because scam tipsters tend to select only winning events for their presenting portfolio, which makes the winning percentage sky high – 80 – 90%. In addition, many professional tipsters provide their services for free or have something like a trial – a couple of free tips and if the player is satisfied – a subscription for a fee. One way to spot fake tipsters off the bat is if the tipster requires money before even providing the player with tips. If you spot websites that work in that fashion, be aware of frauds!
One of the main advice our team has for every punter is not to trust social media tipsters. Most of the time, those are the tipsters that claim to have almost 100% success rate and promise you guaranteed wins – it does not work that way with sports betting. These people promote their betting tips on various social media platforms such as Facebook, Twitter and so on. When we say that we don’t mean to avoid to trust every tipster that has a social account, but those who try to sell you unrealistic results or refer you to a certain bookie where the player should place his bet.
That is a complex and never easy task, never the less the first thing you can do is to check him on Google. There are numerous forums and platforms where punters have shared knowledge and experience, and in this case, their thoughts on a particular tipster. Also, the Web provides players with various tipster verification services that are ready-to-use. Of course, don’t forget to look for the winning percentage – if a tipster does not have a losing streak or is making profit all the time this is something that has to raise the awareness.
A professional punter has a wide range of tipsters from where he gets his betting predictions. But in order for him to make a profit from his betting, he should follow some ground rules, that will help him optimize the process and take the maximum benefit from the tips.
Do not trust social media tipsters
First and foremost never ever trust people that are claiming to make crazy money from sports betting or that they know some fixed matches. You have to think logically if you have a massive edge over the bookmakers will you share it with everyone for free? Those guys or at least 99% of them are scammers, and they take advantage of the newbies in the betting world. Avoid those type of new generation social media tipsters that pretend to make huge amounts of money. As we mentioned above, when you see a tipster publishing some big numbers on Twitter, Facebook, Telegram, or any other social media always ask for their historical results, and whether an independent third party has verified them!
What most of them do is that they have an affiliate deals with some bookmakers and make money when you lose money. These tipsters major goal is to refer you to a certain bookmaker and make you lose money so they can earn some cash.
Use Verified tipster
You can also use tipster marketplaces such as the one available on Betting.com. We are automatically verifying all tips published by Betting.com tipsters - so you know the odds are real, and they have not published tips for events that are already finished (another common scam). You can also analyse their historical results in details and make sure you are choosing the right tipster for you!
Internet is a great force, and there is plenty of websites that offer verification services that you can take advantage of a good once I recommend is Smart Betting Club. Nevertheless, stay focused and always critically analyse the numbers they provide. If you see tipsters that have never had a losing month and they have always been on profit this is a huge red flag – be cautious. I personally recommend you to avoid tipsters that have never had a losing month - in sports betting this is impossible.
Choose a tipster that fits your betting behaviour
Every person who bets has his own betting and sports preferences, when looking for a tipster - the rule "one size fits all” does not apply. If you like some sports more than others like if you are risk-averse and prefer to bet only a few times per week - look for the tipster that will match your needs. For instance, if you like to place a few bets during the weekend certainly go for a football tipster rather than a horse racing one. If you enjoy your night’s sleep, don't even bother to follow Australian ones in case you are based in Europe.
Furthermore, ensure you feel comfortable with the recommended bank size and stake plan. Some tipsters will recommend you to organise your money management with flat staking plan where others will advise you to use Kelly Criterion money management. Having your money management correctly established from the really beginning is particularly important during losing runs, which like it or not will occur at some point while following your tipster.
You should also pay attention to the price of the tipster. Choose only tipsters you can afford to buy - if purchasing a tipster will wipe half of your betting bank do not do it. That will put you in a situation where you have you either have to use leverage (will explain in another article what leverage is) or will decrease your profits to the extent where you will only earn to pay your tipsters fees. Therefore, that will lead to a disappointment and can make you bet with emotions - it is never good.
Have Realistic Expectation
Having realistic expectation while looking for a tipster is from crucial importance. Being realistic for the profits, you can make help you avoid scams - the more greedy you are, the higher the chances are for being scammed! Achieving an average ROI of 3% while following a football tipster is a decent result in today's market. The ROI you can achieve will certainly vary based on the sports - for example, if you are following a horse-racing tipster, you can expect a much lower hit rate but higher ROI returns.
With other words, have realistic expectations that will keep you focused and calm. For example, if you are planning to make 30 points profit over the season, do not expect to make them in the first month. Avoid having a mindset that makes you think you can become a millionaire from following 1 tipster. The truth is that you will not get rich quickly and i guarantee you that it will not happen overnight. Remember tipster are human beings and they will be losing bets on a regular basis. It would help if you did not care whether they have won today, yesterday or tomorrow what it really matters is to be advised to place value bets. We have explained in details the concept of value betting, and why it is crucial to making money from sports betting!
Be ready to lose
Accept the idea that you will be losing. Do not think that the tipster you are following will achieve a hit rate of 80% (fake tipsters can only promise that). Even if it happens will be for a very short period, and you should not get emotionally affected by long winning or losing runs. Something I would recommend you is to read more about the correlation between hit rate and odds! A topic that will increase your generic betting IQ and it will also allow you to better judge which tipsters are potential scammers and which are worth following In case you have liked what you read above, I have recently written a full guide "How to successfully follow a tipster". I believe it is time-consuming to find the tipster you want to follow, but it is even harder to be disciplined enough and follow him for long enough to make money.
Have separate bankrolls for every tipster you follow
When it comes to money management strategies, splitting your bankroll to other micro betting banks assigned to each tipster you follow is from relatively high importance. When allocating a defined sum of money only to a certain tipster, the player has the opportunity to choose a specific betting strategy that he is going to apply only for this tipster and protect his bankroll. The punter can track and analyse the performance of the given tipster, eventually, improve his money management or even better to derive a new betting strategy based on the tipster followed. For example, if a punter follows 4 tipsters and has an overall bankroll of £1000, it is best to divide on 4 and receive four bankrolls of £250 - assuming the punter believes that the 4 tipsters are equally good. Then, when he bets on a certain tipster, let say fol