Value betting, in the context of a penalty shootout, is betting on an event that is more likely to win than the odds given by the bookmaker. Let’s say that in the penalty shootout that Team A was 6/5 to win the shootout. 6/5, when converted as a percentage, represents a probability of around 45%. Now, we know that a penalty shootout victory is 50% in reality, so you have a 5% leeway. In this case, you would place the bet, and if you were to do this over the course of several bets you should be profitable.
Find out more about the importance of betting with the best odds in our Betting Knowledge blog…
Now, bookies don’t make it quite as easy as that, but in order to become your own odds calculator and to become astute in the art of value betting, you need to familiarise yourself with what odds actually mean as a percentage.
Odds of 1/3 represent a probability of 75.19%
Odds of 4/6 represent a probability of 44.44%
Odds of 16/5 represent a probability of 23.81%
Now, as you can tell from these three examples, there is a huge spread of odds and probability percentages involved in value betting. The trick is to gradually learn these percentages over time so that they become second nature to you.
The only downside to this is that learning the odds and their relative percentage can take a very long time, and finding these value bets is nowhere near as easy as the pie in the sky penalty shootout scenario I talked about earlier.
However, there is a potential shortcut that you can use to help find the hidden gems in the market.